Look ahead to next week's new wide release openers: Get Him To The Greek, Killers, Marmaduke and Splice.

Twitter Watch: Preview for 'Get Him To The Greek', 'Killers', 'Marmaduke' and 'Splice'

on May 30, 2010 by Alex Edghill
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Could this week mark the end of the recent trend of underwhelming Box Office returns? Certainly Hollywood and indeed the movie theater industry as a whole hope so. This week with a solid batch of original scripts and an adaptation of a comic strip classic the chances of a strong showing seems promising.

Date Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total
6/04/10 Get Him to the Greek 529 776 1,813 874 3,992
6/04/10 Killers 357 403 441 617 1,818
6/04/10 Marmaduke 198 146 196 142 682
6/04/10 Splice 538 383 342 384 1,647

Get Him To The Greek was the most promising of the three films on Twitter last week which certainly hints at great things. It does appeal squarely to young males, and while it is hoping to cross over to females as well like last year's Hangover (which also opened this same weekend), with no Bradley Cooper or comparable eye candy it might prove to be more Hot Tub Time Machine than Hangover.

Comparisons

Date Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total
1/8/10 Youth In Revolt 282 256 324 200 1,062
3/12/10 She's Out of My League 178 208 255 205 846
3/26/10 Hot Tub Time Machine 732 678 696 943 3,049
5/21/10 MacGruber 869 791 669 604 2,933

Of the above films Hot Tub is definitely the most intriguing comparison. The Universal distribution might will no doubt be a greater driving force behind Greek and it does benefit from a more friendly Summer release. With the DOA MacGruber its target market of young males should be ready and waiting for something to sink their teeth into. It is certainly being pushed hard by the studio marketing-wise and early reception has been largely positive. At 25.26% positive and only 4.92% negative it is the freshest movie coming into the week in terms of its ratings. Not only might this help it on opening weekend but it could also ensure solid legs over the Summer and a potential breakout hit. It should be able to score a Twitter ratio of ~1,750, and a potential 12,000 tweets next week. All appears set for a mid $20 million opening weekend based on these numbers.

Killers also has great potential seeing as though it stars two of Hollywood's most desirable stars: Ashton Kutcher and Katherine Heigl. It was also a very solid performer on Twitter last week, despite having one of the most restrictive names of a movie I've encountered. The film attempts to step outside of the typical romantic comedy audience by incorporating one part Mr. and Mrs. Smith and another part Date Night.

Comparisons

Date Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total
12/18/09 Did You Hear About the Morgans? 64 137 198 94 493
1/29/10 When In Rome 257 166 191 251 865
2/5/10 From Paris With Love 201 251 292 317 1,061
2/12/10 Valentine's Day 1,176 1,032 1,163 1,666 5,037
4/9/10 Date Night 285 278 265 300 1,128

Its ratio will likely be above Date Night's simply because Ashton Kutcher is a much larger buzz-magnet on Twitter than Steve Carrell. I would expect the ratio to be in line with Valentine's Day's 919. Its tweet ratings were also pretty solid, coming in with 27.09% positive and 7.54% negative. It would be able to rack up 6,000 tweets next week, and with a ratio of 1,000 it should translate to a high teens weekend.

Marmaduke had a seemingly slight 682 tweets last week, and will be contending with the leggy Shrek Forever After for the younger demographic. Also with the upcoming Toy Story 3 just a few short weeks ahead it will have an uphill struggle trying to secure a sizeable run no doubt.

Comparisons

Date Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total
11/20/09 Planet 51 186 183 127 146 642
12/23/09 Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 357 308 304 341 1,310
1/15/10 The Spy Next Door 104 92 93 87 376
3/26/10 How to Train Your Dragon 327 386 432 533 1,678
5/21/10 Shrek Forever After 517 605 714 712 2,548

Movies catering to younger audiences such as this have tended to end up with a ratio of between 450 to 600 in most cases. Given the above comparisons it should be in line for roughly 3,500 tweets next week, and given a ratio of 475 it should be able to secure mid $20 millions.

Lastly, Splice will attempt to offer counter-programming to thrill seekers, and appeal primarily to a young to middle aged male demographic. It had 1,647 tweets last week, with a positive to negative ratio of 19.12% / 14.59%.

Comparisons

Date Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total
11/06/09 The Fourth Kind 409 444 400 179 1,432

The Fourth Kind will probably be the best comparison here and it points to a low double digit opening. The only thing here is its very high negative percentage which will likely skew its ratio upwards as a higher percentage of people speaking about the film have no desire to actually see it. Given these two things its ratio will likely be higher, in the range of about ~1,400 and considering a week tally of 4,500 it should be able to secure $8 to $9 million on the weekend.

Check back Tuesday to see the Monday numbers analysis. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about the project and historic data.

Tags: Splice, Marmaduke, Killers, Get Him to the Greek
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