As we enter the fourth weekend of May the Summer season has been largely anti-climactic. Sure, Iron Man 2 was massive, but as strange as it may sound, its opening of $128 million was a good deal softer than many had predicted in the industry. That was followed but two more decent but disappointing frames. The fact is no movie yet this summer has exceeded expectations and really broken out. This weekend two of the biggest releases of the year will go head to head in an effort to please audiences: Sex And The City 2 and Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time.
Sex And The City 2 will no doubt try to appeal to the same core audience that the first film did and try to add a few more, despite now being almost 6 years removed from its TV series. It managed to secure a very impressive 12,718 tweets in its lead-up week, with a solid 21.86% positive rating, and 4.09%% negative rating. In terms of comparison, Dear John had 2,599 in its lead up week to release, The Last Song had 5,644 and Letters To Juliet had 2,417. The film appeals to mostly women, but with a wide demographic spread from 18 to 45+. As such its ratio is going to be much higher than standard female slanting comedies. Add in its very recognizable name, cast and the fact that it is a sequel and that is a recipe for a big ratio. The big wrench here is the fact that it is a Thursday opener which is pretty uncommon for a film. With only three days to gather tweets this will act to counteract many of the inflation factors listed previously. At first glance my guess would be a ratio of ~1,000 and 20,000 tweets by end of day Wednesday. A $20 to $22 million Thursday seems likely.
Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time was equally impressive, coming in at a whopping 16,260 last week, with solid tweet rating numbers of 19.23% positive, and 7.62% negative. The film should appeal to a predominantly young male market from 18 - 35 which should ensure a pretty high ratio since this is a very Twitter-friendly demographic. In terms of comparisons, probably the best would be Iron Man 2 which had 56,036 tweets its week before release. It will likely secure 25,000 to 30,000 tweets next week, with an expected ratio of ~1,750. Expect a Friday in the high teens to low $20 millions.
Check back Tuesday to see the Monday numbers analysis. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
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