This upcoming week comes the massive Dreamworks sequel Shrek Forever After and the SNL movie adaptation MacGruber which no doubt hopes to offer counter programming and become the latest in the pantheon of spinoff successes from the long running TV series.
Shrek Forever After is undoubtedly one of the biggest films of the Summer but since its core appeal is to children its tweet totals will be much more modest than say Iron Man 2's. It managed to secure 2,548 tweets in its lead-up week, with a solid 25.14% positive rating, and 7.43% negative rating. In terms of comparison, A Christmas Carol had 1,112, Alvin And The Chipmunks had 1,310 and How To Train Your Dragon had 1,678. I would expect its ratio to come in at around 350 - 400 next week, with roughly 10,000 - 12,000 tweets. This should allow for an opening weekend at or just past the three figures mark. To be honest originally I had been expecting the numbers to be a bit higher but it has lagged behind Toy Story 3 for weeks now, even though the latter is opening a few weeks away. Not that this isn't going to be huge, but its pretty clear that Toy Story 3 will be bigger, where ever this does end up it will be a great marker.
MacGruber has stood up to Shrek all week and came in with 2,933 tweets last week, but with pretty pedestrian tweet rating numbers of 13.63% positive, and 7.11% negative. The low positive number when paired with the equally low negative number is indicative of pretty high levels of spam. That coupled with the genre, and twitter-friendly target audience means that its ratio is going to be pretty substantial, likely north of 1,250. In terms of comparisons, I think probably the best would be Hot Tub Time Machine which had 3,049 tweets its week before release. Look for ~9,500 tweets next week from this and a ratio of around 1,500 for ~$20 million for the weekend.
Check back Tuesday to see the Monday numbers analysis. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
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