Thursday Afternoon Update: As expected the big story today on Twitter has been the new Eclipse clip which has a lot of fans talking. So far today it has racked up 6,046 tweets and 19.8% of market share which is already way above Wednesday's full day numbers of 4,292 tweets and 10.94% market share. Its positive tweet percentage has also raised significantly to 31.10% from 23.42% which is a sign that fans of the film ate up the clip. On another note the new openers were pretty steady and appear on course to hit the marks laid out below, no surprises there.
Thursday Morning Update: Continuing where it left off on Wednesday, Just Wright had 1,221 tweets on Thursday, up from 1,124 the day before. This accounted for 3.0% market share for the day, a very slight bump from its 2.8% on Tuesday. Its buzz quality showed a market improvement also which is a good sign as 28.09% of its tweets were positive (343 tweets) and 6.55% negative (80 tweets). By comparison, Why Did I Get Married Too had 1,654 tweets its Wednesday before release, Our Family Wedding had 643 and Death At A Funeral had 1,276. The bump in positive tweets was nice to see and it would appear this is going to be a nice earner for Fox Searchlight. It will likely end the week with 5,000 tweets and with an estimated ratio of 1,500 I'd expect to see a $3.35 million Friday and $10 million for the whole weekend.
Letters to Juliet saw a very impressive increase to 1,381 tweets on Wednesday, up from 718 tweets on Tuesday, which gave it 3.4% market share, a steady rise from 1.8% the day before. Its tweet quality was again the best of the three openers coming in almost identical to where it left off yesterday at 30.12% positive (416 tweets) and 8.62% (119 tweets) negative. Most of the chatter appears to be from women in its target market simply gushing over their plans to see the film on Friday or talking about their thoughts about the sneak peek. By comparison, Dear John had 2,789 tweets its Wednesday before release. Yesterday I was worried that it was headed for a sub-4,500 tweet week but now that is well within reach and 5,000 might not be out of the question. Assuming 4,500 tweets for the week and a ratio of 750 $6 million Friday seems to be where it is headed and $17 million for the full weekend.
Lastly, Robin Hood can thank its appearance at Cannes for a record breaking day on Twitter. It jumped to 4,054 tweets on Wednesday, up from 1,678 tweets on Tuesday, good enough for 10% market share, almost a 6% increase from the previous days' 4.1%. It rose 141.6% from Tuesday to Wednesday which is by far the greatest jump I've seen in the last 9 months of monitoring Twitter (second by a ways was When In Rome with 93.18%). Now the growth was not entirely organic as the premiere accounted for a large percentage but it was still impressive nonetheless. In terms of tweet quality it again dropped significantly to 21.95% positive (890 tweets) and 13.42% negative (542 tweets). The drop a positive rated tweets is understandable since much of the Cannes buzz is simply news reports of the premiere which is neutral but the rise in negative tweets is much more troubling. In looking at other relevant films: 2012 had 3,525 tweets its Wednesday before release, Avatar had 7,761 and The Book Of Eli had 1,578. This huge bump it received yesterday (and no doubt the additional spillover it will get tomorrow) will undoubtedly push its ratio up significantly, likely into the region of ~950. It should be able to end the week with 11,500 tweets and I'd expect it to score $12 million on Friday and $36 million for the full weekend.
Check back tomorrow to see the Thursday numbers and the final BoxOffice.com weekend predictions. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.
Market share is calculated by looking at all tweets for wide releases opening in the next 4 months as well as all wide release films in release for less than two weeks. Sometimes limited release films of note are included in the numbers if they might expand wide at a later date or are a release of note.