Tweet counts and analysis for Friday, May 14th.

UPDATED Twitter Watch: Bittersweet evening numbers for 'Robin Hood'

on May 14, 2010 by Alex Edghill
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Friday Night Update: All three openers are doing very well on Twitter today with Just Wright actually seeing the biggest percentage increase. Robin Hood is also doing very well but its negative tweets percentage has gone up to above 12% and it alone accounts for 20% market share for negative tweets to lead the way for all films tracked. Of the non-openers Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps really performed well thanks to its Cannes buzz as it jumped to over 1,000 tweets (from 339 yesterday). Check back tomorrow to see how the openers performed.

Friday Morning Update: Robin Hood kept up its momentum from Wednesday as it scored 4,589 tweets on Thursday. This figure accounted for 9.8% market share, which was actually off by .2% from the day before thanks to the spike in tweets for The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (An Oprah appearance for the cast and new clip saw it surge to 10,000+ tweets yesterday). This number gave it an impressive 11,697 tweets for the week. Its tweet quality actually improved to 27.7% positive from 1,271 tweets (up from 21.95% on Wednesday) and 11.07% negative from 508 tweets (down from 13.42% on Wednesday). A nice mini-recovery after the very mixed bag yesterday. In looking at other relevant films: 2012 ended its pre-release week with 16,025 tweets which gave it a ratio of 676 and a Friday of $23.7 million. Avatar had 29,979 tweets, a 1,110 ratio and $27 million Friday, while The Book Of Eli had 7,084 tweets, a 605 ratio and $11.7 million on its release Friday. The Cannes buzz will no doubt raise its tweet total a ways above my initial estimates and likely to about ~950, which should allow the film to hit $12.25 million on Friday and $36 million for the full weekend.

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Letters to Juliet saw an anemic increase on Thursday to 1,461 tweets, up from 1,381 tweets on Wednesday, which gave it 3.1% market share, a drop of 0.3% from the day before. This gave it 4,344 tweets for the full week. Aside from this one of its bright sparks was again its tweet quality which came in 30.73% positive (449 tweets) and 6.50% (95 tweets) negative. To put that in perspective, only 3 other upcoming films in the next 4 months had a higher positive rating yesterday (counting only those with 100 tweets or more): Scott Pilgrim vs. the World with 48.15%, Inception with 37.52%, and Get Him To The Greek with 32.90%. By comparison, Dear John had 12,194 tweets its week before release which gave it a ratio of 884 and $13.8 million its first day. Its target market appears to be waiting for this film as shown by its positive numbers which is always a good sign. Expect a ratio of 725 and $6 million Friday for a weekend of $17 million.

Lastly, Just Wright had 4,849 tweets on Thursday, up from 1,221 the day before. This accounted for 3.4% market share for the day, an increase of 0.4% from the day before. In fact this was the only of the three openers to not lose ground from yesterday. This number gave it a very solid 4,849 tweets for the week. Its buzz quality was down slightly from the day before to 23.58% positive (370 tweets) and 6.69% negative (105 tweets). By comparison, Why Did I Get Married Too had 5,925 tweets its week before release which in turn lead to a 480 ratio and $12.35 million on its first Friday. Our Family Wedding had 2,294 tweets, a 918 ratio and $2.5 million its first Friday, while Death At A Funeral had 4,966 tweets, a 887 ratio and $5.6 million. Thanks to the easy search string and more popular actors here I expect the ratio to come in around 1,450 which should allow it to hit $3.35 million on Friday and $10 million for the whole weekend. 

Check back Saturday to see the Friday numbers and final ratios. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets050710.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Market share is calculated by looking at all tweets for wide releases opening in the next 4 months as well as all wide release films in release for less than two weeks. Sometimes limited release films of note are included in the numbers if they might expand wide at a later date or are a release of note.

Tags: Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, Just Wright, Letters to Juliet, Robin Hood, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
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