Tweet counts and analysis for Friday, May 21st.

Twitter Watch: 'Shrek' Set For #1 Opening

on May 21, 2010 by Alex Edghill
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upcoming052110.jpgFriday Morning Update: Shrek Forever After really turned on the jets yesterday as it finished the day with 3,904 tweets, up over 75% from 2,201 the previous day. This pushed it past the 10,000 mark for the week (10,069) to make it the only animated film with a Friday release to achieve that feat. Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 had 10,229 tweets but opened on a Wednesday which greatly boosted its mid-week numbers. It started the week very slow but really picked it up on Thursday which was just what it needed. Its tweet quality for the week overall was very solid, with 25.87% positive (from 2,605 tweets) and 3.75% negative (from 378 tweets) which was a good sign, and when coupled with its genre could indicate a better Friday to Sunday expansion than expected. In terms of comparisons, A Christmas Carol  had 4,768 tweets its week before release, which led to a ratio of 532 and $8.96 million its opening day. How To Train Your Dragon had 6,999 tweets and an openign ratio of 574 for $12.20 million its opening day. Shrek's ratio should come in a ways under these two simply because its search filter had to be more stringent to weed out garbage posts. Both Dragon and Carol were unique enough that their names alone were used, while for Shrek Forever After I had to use "Shrek forever OR 4 OR new OR trailer OR poster OR four". This string was pretty solid for grabbing relevant tweets but as always it missed some relevant tweets ("Going to watch Shrek for sure!"), as such it will likely drag the ratio down to ~350 for the weekend from the standard 500-600 for the genre. With this in mind we should see a $28 million Friday and $97 million for the weekend.

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MacGruber was solid, but hardly spectacular on Thursday with 2,179 tweets, up from 1,749 the day before. This gave it 5,878 tweets for the full week. Unlike Shrek Forever After  this film started the week with impressive gains but didn't have the huge Thursday bump that one might of expected given its target audience. Its tweet ratings for the week have been mediocre at best, coming in at 20.67% positive (from 1,215 tweets) and 9.05% negative (from 532 tweets), which is hardly reassuring. Also, perhaps its best comparison, Hot Tub Time Machine had 8,122 tweets its week of release, which gave it a ratio of 1,785 and $4.55 million on its first day of release. I would expect a ratio here of 1,550 which would give it $3.75 million Friday and $11 million for the weekend.

Check back tomorrow to see the Friday numbers and final ratios for the week. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check our methodology page for information about the project and historic data.

Tags: Shrek Forever After, MacGruber
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