Tweet counts and analysis for Friday, June 25th.

Twitter Watch: Both Openers Post Modest Gains

on June 25, 2010 by Alex Edghill
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Friday Morning Update: Knight and Day really dwarfed Grown Ups this week in total buzz, but much of that was thanks to its mid-week opening and greater appeal to young women, aka Twitter superusers. Knight and Day continued where it left off on Wednesday yesterday with 8,784 tweets and 11.8% market share, up from 7,951 tweets and 10.6% market share. The Wednesday opening really does throw a spanner in the works, especially with the added fact of its very disappointing $3.8 million opening day tally which created a buzz snowball effect.

Knight and Day Comparisons

  Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total Friday Ratio
3/31/10 The Last Song 2,211 3,412 7,891 6,811 20,325 $7.10 2,863
4/9/10 Date Night 476 912 1,273 1,788 4,449 $9.30 478
5/27/10 Sex and the City 2 6,844 13,085 14,554 22,712 57,195 $13.00 4,400
6/04/10 Killers 491 867 1,563 1,367 4,288 $5.60 766
6/23/10 Knight and Day 1,403 2,438 7,951 8,784 20,576    

I've compared it to Killers for much of a week since I think the target audience will be quite similar but obviously the mid-week opening makes that rather difficult. Another interesting comparison is that in its first two days of release Killers scored 2,967 and 4,944 tweets, or just under half Knight's buzz. All things considered, including the search-friendly title and increased buzz thanks to performance we should be looking at a $7 million Friday for a full week ratio of just under 3,000. Yes that would put it right up there with The Last Song which seems high but I believe that the circus now around Box Office underperformances this summer, coupled with Tom Cruise haters more than compensate for the throngs of Miley Cyrus fans (many of whom probably don't even know what Twitter is).

Grown Ups actually saw a decent surge yesterday with 1,824 tweets or 2.5% market share, up from 1,034 tweets and 1.3% market share. The uptick was very welcomed considering its very low key week, but it will likely be too little too late for it to reach the lofty heights of $35 million+ most tracking sources indicated.

Grown Ups Comparisons

  Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total Friday Ratio
10/09/09 Couples Retreat 533 938 1,022 1,217 3,710 $12.33 301
11/06/09 Men Who Stare At Goats 495 691 793 1,270 3,249 $4.60 706
11/25/09 Old Dogs 360 990 1,603 1,046 3,999 $6.85 584
3/12/10 She's Out of My League 390 571 645 1,089 2,695 $3.30 817
4/16/10 Death At A Funeral 855 1,214 1,276 1,621 4,966 $5.60 887
6/04/10 Get Him to the Greek 566 1174 1,467 4,338 7,545 $6.30 1,198
6/25/10 Grown Ups 594 815 1,034 1,824 4,267    

Its big Thursday pushed it in front of Couples Retreat by a couple hundred tweets after it lagged behind for the first three days of the week. Given that Couples had an ultra-low ratio not yet replicated for the audience I'm weary to project the same for Grown Ups, especially considering its huge advertising spend. I think it will more likely come in with a 400 ratio and $10.75 million on Friday. Still a very solid number, but with that projecting out to a $28 million full weekend it will hardly be labelled as a successful opening given the history of Sandler and now James.

Top 10 Upcoming Movies for Thursday June 24th 

Film Buzz Positive Buzz Negative Buzz
1 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse 23351 7383 540
2 Knight and Day 8784 2728 298
3 The Last Airbender 2295 602 73
4 Inception 1930 535 50
5 Grown Ups 1824 616 130
6 Predators 754 167 13
7 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I 690 69 7
8 Despicable Me 668 234 12
9 Takers 404 123 11
10 Salt 355 98 12

Check back on Saturday for the final ratio and Friday numbers and again on Sunday for a preview of the following week's openers. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about the project and historic data.

Tags: Grown Ups, Knight and Day
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