Tweet counts and analysis for Friday, June 11th.

Twitter Watch: Close Battle Brewing

on June 11, 2010 by Alex Edghill
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Friday Morning Update: As it has for most of the week, The Karate Kid continued its buzz dominance on Twitter with 6,839 tweets and 13.2% market share. This was up from yesterday's 3,040 tweets and 6.0% market share, the jump in tweets actually corresponds to an impressive 125% hike. Its tweet ratings were also the best it has been all week on Thursday, coming in at 32.42% positive and 6.43% negative (its average for Monday to Thursday was 28.09% positive and 6.28% negative).

The Karate Kid Comparisons

  Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total Friday Ratio
2/12/10 Percy Jackson and The Olympians 3,124 3,732 5,212 7,654 19,722 $9.78 2,018
3/5/10 Alice In Wonderland 12,001 14,449 17,743 39,765 83,958 $41.00 2,048
6/11/10 The Karate Kid (2010) 2,779 3,852 3,040 6,839 16,510    

As I've said for most the week, yes I do think the film's ratio is going to be quite high, similar to these two comparisons but I do believe it will attract a larger portion of very young children which should suppress its ratio somewhat. That plus its search string is somewhat more tricky to zero out garbage tweets ("Karate Kid" new OR chan OR henson OR trailer OR summer OR see OR poster OR movie OR smith for Karate Kid versus "Alice In Wonderland" and "percy jackson") which will also curtail its overall ratio. It did bounce back nicely after its dip yesterday and managed to take the #2 spot for the day in overall tweets for upcoming movies, as it trailed only the behemoth Twilight: Eclipse. My prediction remains unchanged from yesterday and we should be looking at a $12 million Friday and $35.5 for the entire weekend and the #1 spot.

The A-Team also saw a very solid increase on Thursday to 3,001 tweets and 5.8% market share, up from 1,807 tweets on Wednesday and 3.6% market share. This gave it the fourth spot on Twitter for the day (behind Eclipse, The Kid, and Toy Story 3) and a 66% growth in buzz from Wednesday. Like Karate Kid its tweet ratings also improved on Thursday, going to 31.86% positive and 10.53% negative, up from its full week average of 27.08% positive and 10.16% negative.

The A-Team Comparisons

  Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total Friday Ratio
11/13/09 2012 2,290 2,864 3,525 7,346 16,025 $23.70 676
12/18/09 Avatar 4,040 5,100 7,761 13,078 29,979 $27.00 1,110
1/15/10 The Book of Eli 1,101 1,094 1,578 3,311 7,084 $11.70 605
2/12/10 The Wolfman 969 1,346 1,891 2,397 6,603 $9.85 670
4/2/10 Clash of the Titans 2,632 3,789 5,712 11,789 23,922 $29.02 824
5/14/10 Robin Hood 1,376 1,678 4,054 4,589 11,697 $13.15 890
6/11/10 The A-Team 1,478 2,039 1,807 3,001 8,325    

Now the gaudy numbers are not there for the film like Karate Kid but when comparing it to the above list of openers its clear the genre and audience this appeals to generally slots into a ratio range of 600 - 800. The weekend is a prime example of how tweet totals can be misleading if one doesn't consider the appeal of the films and all external factors. As such, all signs point to a very close race for the weekend, and my prediction stands that this will win the Friday battle with $12.2 million but lose the war of the weekend with $34.5 million.

Top 10 Upcoming Movies for Thursday June 10th 

Film Buzz Positive Buzz Negative Buzz
1 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse 11315 1690 323
2 The Karate Kid (2010) 6839 2202 440
3 Toy Story 3 5733 1420 232
4 The A-Team 3001 956 316
5 The Last Airbender 1248 361 119
6 Tangled 761 117 28
7 Scott Pilgrim vs. the World 687 194 48
8 Jonah Hex 564 94 62
9 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I 446 64 15
10 Inception 386 109 23

Check back on Saturday for the final ratio and Friday numbers and again on Sunday for a preview of the following week's openers. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about the project and historic data.

Tags: The A-Team, The Karate Kid, Toy Story 3, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
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