Wednesday Afternoon Update: Thanks to its new innovative Facebook pre-order application, Toy Story 3 broke out today to 6.6% market share, up from 4.8% yesterday. Of the new openers the biggest mover for the day has been Killers which has grown to 2.8% market share, up from 1.4% yesterday thanks to increased buzz about its premiere. Marmaduke continues to struggle badly, rising just .1% from yesterday so far.
Wednesday Morning Update: Marmaduke really is having a hard time on Twitter as it has failed miserably to cultivate any significant buzz yesterday again. It managed a paltry 231 tweets on Tuesday, a decline of 20% from Monday's 283. To add insult to injury its tweet ratings were pretty appalling, with 20.78% being negative, the highest of any opener I've seen yet (22.13% were positive). Its market share remained flat over the two days at 0.4%. Yes its primary audience are not Twitter-focused but many other films targeting the exact same demographic have managed to stir up significantly more buzz. Continuing with my comparisons from yesterday, The Tooth Fairy had 352 tweets its Tuesday before release, Furry Vengeance had 309, The Spy Next Door had 226 and Diary of a Wimpy Kid had 347. The studio has clearly shunned the Twitter demographic, and with a movie which is attempting to appeal to a very young audience this is a very large mistake considering they aren't going to be going to the theater by themselves at 6, but with their parents.
Get Him To The Greek was the other big story on Tuesday, but unlike Marmaduke, it was because it really picked up in the afternoon and finished the day with 1,174 tweets and 1.7% market share. This was the largest percentage increase of the four new openers from Monday, coming in at a 107% hike from 566 the day before. It owed much of the expansion to some select screenings which really generated positive buzz (24.44% positive, 5.62% negative) and many many tweets of people vowing to see it Friday which is a solid sign. Hot Tub Time Machine did manage to get 1,744 tweets its Tuesday before release but it is important to note that Greek has not become a cultural reference like Hot Tub was and as such its ratio should be significantly lower. It also managed to have a significant jump in Facebook fans this evening, which is another strong sign. This is shaping up to be the winner for the weekend and with very solid tweet ratings/buzz it will undoubtedly have decent legs.
Killers also showed a sizeable jump on Tuesday as it climbed to 867 tweets and 1.4% market share, up from 491 tweets on Monday, and 0.7% market share. By comparison, Valentine's Day had 3,442 its Tuesday before release, Did You Hear About The Morgans had 249, Letters to Juliet had 718 and Date Night had 912. Much better numbers for Tuesday as its buzz started to jump to more expected levels. Its tweet ratings were also above average, coming in with a week high of 30.8% positive and 6.92% negative. Solid numbers all round but the presence of two of the most popular young stars should send its ratio to the ~650 range and ensure it doesn't make it out of the teen millions or challenge Greek seriously for the top spot.
Next up is Splice which had a very solid day with 752 tweets and 1.2% market share, up from 387 tweets and 0.5% market share on Monday. This gave it the second biggest increase from Monday after Greek with 94%. By comparison, The Fourth Kind had 752 tweets its Tuesday before release (yes I don't jest, they had the same count), and The Crazies had 894. Though still well below average, its tweet ratings were improved slightly over Monday, with 18.65% positive and 13.70% negative. The Fourth Kind comparison seems pretty spot on here for the film and as such it should flirt with double digits though won't venture much beyond that.
Check back later today for the afternoon update and also Thursday to see the official BoxOffice.com predictions for the weekend and final Wednesday numbers analysis. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
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