Thursday Afternoon Update: Knight and Day has shot up to 7,801 tweets already on the day for a market share of 13.8%. Grown Ups has also seen its best increase of the week as it has scored 1,189 tweets already and a market share of 2.1%. Pretty much expected for both on the heels of the weekend. Again Grown Ups is underwhelming but will be more than enough to lead the newcomers, while Knight's number promises much better things for Friday than its paltry $3.8 million opening day.
Thursday Mid-Morning Update: Knight and Day earned a disappointing $3.8 million on its opening day. This was a ways below my estimated $5.5 million and gave it a Twitter ratio of just over 1,000. Pretty underwhelming considering all the buzz it managed to generate yesterday, though perhaps it is a sign of better times ahead for the weekend. Its hold today will be interesting to see to gauge its potential going forward.
Thursday Morning Update: Grown Ups once again saw a very modest increase on Wednesday as it rose 23% to 1,034 tweets and 1.3% market share, up from 815 tweets on Tuesday and 1.4% market share. Today was a very busy day on Twitter for movies as a new Scott Pilgrim meme spread like wildfire to the tune of 10,000 tweets, and news of a new Harry Potter trailer vaulted it back into the top 10. Grown Ups obviously struggled to keep pace as it grew a tiny 0.1% from the day before for its second straight soft increase. By comparison, Couples Retreat had 1,022 tweets on its Wednesday before release, Death at a Funeral had 1,276 and Get Him To The Greek had 1,467. The numbers just simply aren't there to support a massive Sandler-esque opening north of $38 million. It seems to be playing out very similarly to Couples but with Summer upon us and Sandler movies usually being more frontloaded expect $10.75 million on Friday on its way to $28 million for the weekend.
Knight and Day opened in North America on Wednesday and as such it saw a massive spike in tweets to 7,951 tweets and 10.6% market share, up from 2,438 tweets on Tuesday and a market share of 4.0%. By comparison, Killers had 1,563 tweets on its Wednesday before release, and 2,967 on its day of release. Impressive buzz for its opening day, especially since it is a Wednesday. The film should have a much higher ratio than Grown Ups given its target audience and unique name, but based on this number my prediction of $5.5 million for Wednesday's gross seems safe and it should be able to ride this buzz-wave to $31 million by the end of the weekend.
Top 10 Upcoming Movies for Wednesday June 23rd
|Film||Buzz||Positive Buzz||Negative Buzz|
|1||The Twilight Saga: Eclipse||15243||3886||353|
|2||Scott Pilgrim vs. the World||10227||1303||144|
|3||Knight and Day||7951||2170||213|
|4||The Last Airbender||2163||607||82|
|5||Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I||1564||95||2|
Check back later today for the afternoon update and also Friday to see the final Thursday numbers analysis and final predictions. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Please check the methodology page for information about the project and historic data.