Look ahead to next week's new wide release openers: The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, and The Last Airbender.

Twitter Watch: Preview for 'The Twilight Saga: Eclipse' and 'The Last Airbender'

on June 27, 2010 by Alex Edghill
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This week, women the world over are reaching fever pitch in their anticipation of the latest Twilight installment - Eclipse. Joining the buzz circus is another highly anticipated movie The Last Airbender which hopes to attract a completely different demographic: young to middle aged men.

Tweet totals from June 21st to 24th

Date Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total
6/30/10 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse 11,538 13,974 15,243 23,351 64,106
7/01/10 The Last Airbender 1,817 2,182 2,163 2,295 8,457

The Twilight franchise is like crack for female Twitter users, something last year's New Moon aptly showed. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse has begun in a very similar fashion with a very impressive 64,106 tweets last week, the second highest total after, you guessed it, The Twilight Saga: New Moon's 78,268. The film has dominated the market share charts for upcoming movies in recent weeks and has been in the top 5 each day for just over two months now.

Comparisons

Date Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total
11/20/09 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 15,969 20,072 18,706 23,521 78,268
6/30/10 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse 11,538 13,974 15,243 23,351 64,106

Basically this is the comparison that matters most and with Eclipse running slightly behind at face value it would seem to indicate an opening not as large as New Moon. There are a few wrinkles in this prediction and comparison though, namely that Eclipse will open on a Wednesday and not Friday, and that it was more difficult to narrow down tweets for Eclipse. Simply searching for Eclipse brought back a large percentage of false-positives, while simply searching for "New Moon" was used for the previous film. At any rate, Eclipse has heaps of buzz going into its week of release and is clearly going to have a massive opening day next Wednesday. Whether or not it can break New Moon's opening day record remains to be seen but its Monday and Tuesday tweet totals should offer great insight into its potential for Wednesday.

Next up is The Last Airbender which is no doubt hoping to grab the other side of the demographic coin. Despite a cast of relative unknowns, it has managed to generate steady buzz over the last few weeks, utilizing its awesome visuals and director's name (M. Night Shyamalan) to entice movie goers.

Comparisons

Date Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total
11/25/09 Ninja Assassin 575 394 564 716 2,249
12/18/09 Avatar 1,375 1,651 1,765 3,245 8,036
4/16/10 Kick Ass 1,288 1,276 1,566 1,788 5,918
6/11/10 The Karate Kid (2010) 4,764 2535 2,078 2,077 11,454
7/02/10 The Last Airbender 1,817 2,182 2,163 2,295 8,457

Really impressive levels of buzz for the film which has built up quite a following online. Its difficult to find a great comparative film for this since its based on an animated series, with a very unique name and opening on a Thursday: hardly your typical opener!  Take out Justin Bieber's Monday fueled tally and it actually lined up very well with Karate Kid, and also Avatar, esteemed company. Early week totals will be telling as always but I would expect a ratio of between 1,200 and 1,500 when its opening day Thursday rolls around.

Check back Monday to see how the films are both faring and then again on Tuesday for a full analysis of the Monday numbers. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about the project and historic data.

Tags: The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, The Last Airbender
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