Tweet counts and analysis for Friday, June 18th.

Twitter Watch: 'Toy Story 3' Primed for Massive Opening

on June 18, 2010 by Alex Edghill
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Friday Morning Update: The graph above really does a great job at summarizing this week and my predictions for the weekend. Toy Story 3 huge, Jonah Hex...not so much. Toy Story 3 continued where it left off yesterday and clobbered its movie rivals on Twitter with 21,510 tweets and 32.7% market share. This was up from yesterday's 17,346 tweets and 32.0% market share.

Toy Story 3 Comparisons

  Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total Friday Ratio
2/12/10 Percy Jackson and The Olympians 3,124 3,732 5,212 7,654 19,722 $9.78 2,018
3/5/10 Alice In Wonderland 12,001 14,449 17,743 39,765 83,958 $41.00 2,048
6/18/10 Toy Story 3 13,389 12,288 17,346 21,510 64,533    

Alice is the obvious comparison here which is a great yardstick. While I don't expect Toy Story to get quite as high of a ratio, Pixar/Disney have been pushing the social media ticket, even pioneering Facebook ticket prebooking, which wil serve to ensure its well above the standard animated film region of 400-600. The buzz here has been simply spectacular considering the core demographic here is definitely children and families. It is testament to it reaching all quadrants, a recipe for a massive weekend. My prediction remains unchanged from yesterday and we should be looking at a $35 million Friday and $120 million for the entire weekend and the #1 spot by a long ways over The Karate Kid in its sophomore frame.

Jonah Hex definitely had its best day of the week yesterday with 2,721 tweets and 4.1% market share, up from 1,425 tweets on Wednesday and 2.6% market share. Despite this uptick, its overall buzz has been very sparce considering the genre and easy title to gather tweets from.

Jonah Hex Comparisons

  Movie Mon Tue Wed Thu Total Friday Ratio
9/18/09 Jennifer's Body 975 980 1,081 2,045 5,081 $2.80 1,815
11/25/09 Ninja Assassin 1,057 1,561 3,278 3,822 9,718 $5.67 1,714
4/16/10 Kick Ass 1,743 1,923 3,123 4,002 10,791 $7.60 1,420
5/21/10 MacGruber 733 1,217 1,749 2,179 5,878 $1.60 3,674
6/18/10 Jonah Hex 866 1,221 1,425 2,721 6,233    

The above numbers say it all really, the comparisons chosen were all films targeting the same demographic and had easy names to narrow down tweets for (except Kick Ass which was a pain but a valid comparison nonetheless because of the comic connection). Its pretty clear it is going to have a pretty hefty ratio north of 1,400 based on these comparisons, and with quite a bit of buzz being created because of its impending failure, the ratio will suffer further. Its fitting that Jennifer's Body was the first movie I collected data on way back on September 18th of 2009, and now this film marks the 100th film tracked exactly. Thanks to Megan Fox for making bombs to help validate the power of Twitter to smell them out. Look for $3.5 million for Hex on Friday and $9 million for the weekend.

Top 10 Upcoming Movies for Thursday June 17th 

Film Buzz Positive Buzz Negative Buzz
1 Toy Story 3 21510 6584 443
2 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse 11775 2436 189
3 Scott Pilgrim vs. the World 4357 1187 52
4 Jonah Hex 2721 565 171
5 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader 1975 317 12
6 The Last Airbender 1701 420 40
7 Knight and Day 1329 267 34
8 Eat Pray Love 582 203 5
9 Despicable Me 551 186 10
10 Grown Ups 401 100 53

An interesting note on the above numbers is that The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader scored roughly 2,000 tweets thanks to its trailer being released today, while the first Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I trailer debuted to 3,987. The difference in demand and Box Office potential for the two franchises is ever-apparent and Twitter is no exception to the rule.

Check back on Saturday for the final ratio and Friday numbers and again on Sunday for a preview of the following week's openers. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about the project and historic data.

Tags: Toy Story 3, Jonah Hex, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
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