Here's the numbers that matter when you're trying to predict the box office

Hot or Not: What Movies Are People Really Talking About On The Web?

on July 18, 2012 by Amy Nicholson

hot_or_not_july_17.jpgThe Dark Knight Rises dominates the week with 34.97% of all online buzz about unreleased movies. But we already know it's huge—what movies are chasing behind it?


THE TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN - PART II: Trotting out the stars at Comic-Con made this franchise closer rule our WebWatch charts with 10.59% of the online talk about all upcoming movies. The first glimpses of Bella Swan as a vampire who immediately hunts and eats a mountain lion so thrilled fans that Breaking Dawn's chatter breaks down to 12:1 positive to negative. Summit doesn't doubt it has a hit, but numbers could be even bigger than expected.

OZ: THE GREAT AND POWERFUL: A reboot of the 1939 classic is polarizing, especially when it stars James Franco as the Wizard of Oz in this prequel that tells us how he shipped himself over the rainbow and turned the Wicked Witch wicked. Hey, he's a heartbreaker. But though Oz was trailing on our charts, Comic-Con gave it a huge boost—4.76% of all chatter says people are in favor of a return trip to the yellow brick road. The big test: can director Sam Raimi maintain this momentum for eight more months?

STEP UP REVOLUTION: The Step Up movies keep getting more ambitious in crazy moves, crazy sets and super-crazy 3D. Step Up 3D made its $30 million budget back five times over, and even though director Jon M. Chu took off to direct G.I. Joe 2, this fourth flick in the dance franchise is poised to do the same. A 4.45% market share of opinions is a strong omen that a chunk of moviegoers will head back to the multiplex next week and boogie.


THE WATCH: A name-change hasn't done the-film-formerly-known-as-Neighborhood Watch any favors—it's still trolling at the low depths of 0.23%, a very bad sign for a movie just one week from release. (Especially when it's estimated to cost $70,000,000.) Looks like the problem wasn't the Zimmerman-triggering name, but the possibility that audiences are totally over Ben Stiller and Vince Vaughn. They've got a big test of their box office clout on the very near horizon.

THE BOURNE LEGACY: Audiences still aren't sold that the half-billion dollar franchise can swap out its star and director and still kick ass. Though new helmer Tony Gilroy wrote Bournes Ultimatum, Identity and Supremacy, he's still gotta gain fan trust to move the needle of this August 10th release higher than 0.15% of all online chatter. How can Jeremy Renner's huge hit with The Avengers help get this prequel some good buzz?

THE EXPENDABLES 2: Just months ago, this sequel looked like a heavyweight that couldn't miss. Mayday! Exactly one month before release, it's muscling only 0.13% of the internet's enthusiasm, and with star Sylvester Stallone's recent tragedy, he'll have a hard time pumping up fans before Expendables 2 hits theaters on August 17th. Time for his co-stars to spring into action.


Tags: The Dark Knight Rises, The Watch, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2, Step Up Revolution, The Expendables 2, The Bourne Legacy, Oz: The Great and Powerful

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