'Mama' Wins Big on Friday; 'Broken City' & 'The Last Stand' Flop

on January 19, 2013 by Shawn Robbins

Please note: a complete list of 4-day estimates is available at the bottom of this report.

Mama was expected to take this holiday weekend in a fairly close race at the top, but with an impressive $10 million opening day, the PG-13 horror pic starring Jessica Chastain will easily win the 3-day frame with an estimated $26 million, and $30 million for the 4-day haul. The film--sold largely on fan favorite Guillermo del Toro's producing credit--topped the $7.4 million first day of last October's Sinister. While Mama trailed the massive $16.8 million opening day of last January's The Devil Inside, the former's performance is still impressive considering the more crowded slate of new releases and strong holdovers this weekend.

Positioned to take second place for Martin Luther King Weekend is last week's winner, Zero Dark Thirty. Fresh off a Golden Globe win for Jessica Chastain and continued controversy alongside Oscar buzz, the film was down nearly 50 percent from last Friday to $4.55 million. Zero Dark Thirty stands just shy of $43 million domestically through yesterday and is projected to take in a strong $15.2 million for the 3-day weekend--a 37.8 percent decline from its first weekend in wide release. Our 4-day estimate is $18 million.

Silver Linings Playbook continues to build momentum as it expanded into 2,523 theaters this weekend. The strategy resulted in a 97 percent Friday-to-Friday increase to $2.954 million for the Oscar contender and pushed its domestic total up to $46.9 million as of yesterday. We're projecting a $9.8 million 3-day gross and $11.7 million for the 4-day tally.

Meanwhile, Broken City debuted below expectations with $3 million on Friday. Boxoffice.com is currently projecting an $8.7 million 3-day haul and $10.2 million for the extended 4-day weekend, well behind the $24.4 million breakout of last January's Wahlberg thriller Contraband.

Arnold Schwarzenegger's first leading role in nearly ten years didn't fare well to start the weekend. With a Friday take of $2 million, The Last Stand is on pace to take in only $5.7 million through Sunday and a possible $6.7 million by the end of Monday's holiday.

Last week's third place opener, Gangster Squad, tumbled over 60 percent from its opening day to $2.665 million on Friday. The film's total after eight days is $25.775 million.

One final note for Friday: on its 71st day of domestic release the box office phenomenon of Skyfall added another trophy to its case by crossing the $300 million threshold in North America. The film scored an estimated $260k on Friday, which would put the total at $300.147 million.

Early 4-Day Weekend Estimates:

Mama -- $30.0 million
Zero Dark Thirty -- $18.0 million
Silver Linings Playbook -- $11.7 million
Gangster Squad -- $10.3 million
Broken City -- $10.2 million
Django Unchained -- $9.5 million
A Haunted House -- $9.4 million
Les Misérables -- $9.0 million
The Hobbit -- $7.5 million
The Last Stand -- $6.7 million
Lincoln -- $6.5 million
Parental Guidance -- $5.7 million
Life of Pi -- $4.2 million

Additional reporting by Daniel Garris.

Tags: The Last Stand, Mama, Broken City

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