Early Weekend Predictions: 'Get Him to the Greek,' 'Killers,' 'Marmaduke' and 'Spice'
Featured Stories - on June 03, 2010 by Phil Contrino
Can any of the four new wide releases topple Shrek Forever After?
Thursday Afternoon Update: Final Location Counts: Shrek Forever After 4,386 (+19); Get Him to the Greek 2,696 (new); Killers 2,859 (new); Splice 2,450 (new); Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time 3,646 (0); Sex and the City 2 3,445 (0); Iron Man 2 3,007 (-797); Robin Hood 2,581 (-781); Letters to Juliet 1,962 (-863).
Wednesday Afternoon Update: Get Him to the Greek, Killers, Marmaduke and Splice will all try to take the top spot from Shrek Forever After this weekend, but it looks as though America's favorite ogre has nothing to fear.
A rush of new releases allows for less break-out potential. Get Him to the Greek and Splice in particular would have a better a chance of delivering solid numbers if the market wasn't quite as crowded. As for Killers and Marmaduke, they'll face strong competition from films already in theaters. Killers will have to square off against Sex and the City 2 for the attention of female moviegoers, while Marmaduke is at odds with Shrek 4 when it comes to coveted family audiences.
"This weekend is really crowded, but it's the holdovers that are attracting the most attention," says Flixster spokesperson John Singh when discussing activity on the popular website.
Shrek 4 is making up for an underwhelming opening by taking advantage of what's shaping up to be a disappointing summer. The Paramount release was able to fend off newcomers last weekend, and it has enough momentum to do the same this coming weekend. Shrek 4's most active Facebook page saw a healthy 4,735 fan daily increase, and Flixster users have given the film a 72 percent approval rating.
Look for Shrek 4 to grab another $29 million during its third weekend in theaters.
Get Him to the Greek is poised for the best opening among new releases. Critics are being kind, and Universal is not letting up on the aggressive marketing campaign.
According to BOXOFFICE's WebWatch data, Get Him to the Greek ranks ahead of Marmaduke, Killers and Splice in terms of total online opinions across the Internet. Greek boasts a 2.91 percent market share from May 27 to June 2, which puts it in seventh place behind such upcoming heavyweights as The Last Airbender and The A-Team. Greek is also showing an impressive amount of growth on Facebook as well as more tweets than other new releases.
Get Him to the Greek should manage a respectable $19 million from around 2,700 locations during its debut frame.
Killers represents a safe option for dating moviegoers, and the combination of Katherine Heigl and Ashton Kutcher guarantees that a certain base will show up. According to WebWatch data, Killers is right behind Get Him to the Greek with a 2.68 percent market share, yet the rom-com's performance on Facebook and Twitter is much less promising than Greek's.
Expect Killers to open to $15 million from around 2,700 locations.
Marmaduke has an incredibly low amount of online buzz, even by children's film standards. The 20th Century Fox release has only a .080 percent market share of online opinions according to WebWatch data. Marmaduke's most active Facebook page barely has a pulse, and it isn't registering on Twitter. The film's main advantage is that it will appeal to families that have already seen Shrek 4 and are itching for something to see before Toy Story 3 debuts later this month.
Look for Marmaduke to deliver a $12 million opening from 3,000 locations.
Splice doesn't look like it has the makings of a horror sleeper. The Warner Bros. release has only a 1.89 percent market share of internet opinions. Additionally, its most active Facebook page isn't growing at a promising pace and Twitter is not teeming with Splice tweets even though the film's trailer has been getting plenty of play both online and on television.
Splice should bring in $10 million from more than 2,500 locations.
Check out our top 10 predictions in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor|| Weekend Gross ||Cumulative|
|Shrek Forever After||May 21, 2010||Paramount / DreamWorks
|Get Him to the Greek||Jun 4, 2010||Universal
|Killers||Jun 4, 2010||Lionsgate
|Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time||May 28, 2010||Disney
|Sex and the City 2||May 27, 2010||Warner Bros. / New Line
|Marmaduke||Jun 4, 2010||Fox
|Iron Man 2||May 7, 2010||Paramount
|Splice||Jun 4, 2010||Warner Bros
|Robin Hood||May 14, 2010||Universal
|Letters to Juliet||May 14, 2010||Summit
Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.