Weekend Predictions: 'Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules' and 'Sucker Punch'

Featured Stories - on March 23, 2011 by Phil Contrino

32511predictions.pngA sequel based on a popular series of novels should squeak past an action flick about girls fighting battles in an alternative reality at the box office this weekend.

The stage is set for Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules to post comparable numbers to its predecessor. Diary of a Wimpy Kid opened to an impressive $22 million last March, and 20th Century Fox is certainly wise to strike while the franchise still has momentum. It helps quite a bit that Mars Needs Moms landed with a thud earlier this month. If Disney's animated flick was a hit, it would have provided strong competition for the same pre-teen male/family audience that Rodrick Rules is gunning for. 

According to BoxOffice.com's WebWatch, Rodrick Rules currently has only 2.66% market share of online opinions among unreleased films. That's not cause for concern considering that family films don't always kick up overwhelming amounts of online buzz.

On Twitter, Rodrick Rules is running close to its predecessor. The franchise's most active Facebook page has added only around 3,000 new fans since early Monday morning, but it does already have a healthy following of nearly 280,000.

As of 4 p.m. PT, Fandango.com is reporting that Rodrick Rules is responsible for 13% of daily sales. The original film posted 24% of daily sales on the Wednesday before hitting theaters.

Look for Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules to pull in $20 million from around 3,100 locations during its debut frame.

After jumping into animation with Legend of the Guardian: The Owls of Ga'Hoole, Zack Snyder returns to the world of stylized action with Sucker Punch. The almost entirely female castled by Emily Browningdoesn't contain one reliable draw, so the star of the show really is Snyder. While certainly talented, Snyder doesn't have enough directorial clout to really open a blockbuster movie on his own. Sucker Punch is shaping up to be a dull point at the box office before Snyder's Superman: Man of Steel inevitably delivers a huge rush of receipts next year.

According to WebWatch, Sucker Punch boasts a solid 7.63% market share of online opinions among unreleased filmsranking it behind only Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II. That's to be expected considering it appeals to the same fanboy base that supported Snyder's 300 and Watchmen.

On Facebook, Sucker Punch's Facebook page has a relatively respectable following of nearly 135,000. Unfortunately, that number doesn't hold up well when compared to the 190,000+ fans that The Green Hornet had on the Wednesday before hitting theaters. Twitter activity also leaves something to be desired. The Warner Bros. release is inspiring less tweets than Kick-Ass and Resident Evil: Afterlife.

Fandango.com is reporting that Sucker Punch leads daily sales with 15%.

Expect Sucker Punch to grab $16 million from more than 3,000 locations during its debut frame.

Check out the rest of our top 10 predictions in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules Mar 25, 2011 Fox
$20,000,000 $20,000,000
Sucker Punch Mar 25, 2011 Warner Bros.
$16,000,000 $16,000,000
Limitless Mar 18, 2011 Relativity Media
$12,500,000 $38,700,000
The Lincoln Lawyer Mar 18, 2011 Lionsgate
$9,700,000 $31,600,000
Rango Mar 4, 2011 Paramount
$9,500,000 $105,900,000
Paul Mar 18, 2011 Universal
$7,200,000 $24,300,000
Battle: Los Angeles Mar 11, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$6,700,000 $71,600,000
Red Riding Hood Mar 11, 2011 Warner Bros.
$3,700,000 $31,800,000
Mars Needs Moms Mar 11, 2011 Disney
$3,500,000 $20,400,000
The Adjustment Bureau Mar 4, 2011 Universal
$3,300,000 $53,900,000

Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.

Tags: Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules, Sucker Punch

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