Long Range Forecast: 'Drive,' 'Straw Dogs,' 'I Don't Know How She Does It,' 'The Lion King 3D' and 'Johnny English Reborn'

Featured Stories - on July 23, 2011 by Phil Contrino

driveforecast.pngWe've added Drive, Straw Dogs, I Don't Know How She Does It, The Lion King 3D and Johnny English Reborn to the Long Range Forecast this week. All five films are set to open on September 16.

Ryan Gosling is headed for a rush of stardom now that he's earned his indie credibility in the likes of Half Nelson and Blue Valentine. A showy supporting turn in Crazy, Stupid, Love will boost the Oscar-nominated actor's stock considerably when it comes to mainstream recognition. Drive received excellent reviews out of Cannes, and Gosling's performance in particular was heaped with praise. Look for this one to be a breakout hit.

Straw Dogs may be too uncompromising and raw for mainstream digestion. It also doesn't help that star James Marsden is far from a reliable draw. Expectations are low for this psychological thriller.

I Don't Know How She Does It will test Sarah Jessica Parker's drawing power outside of the Sex and the City franchise. Considering that Sex and the City 2 bombed, it looks like Parker's clout is on a downward slope. This rom-com will be lucky to reach $10 million during its debut frame.

The success of Lion King 3D will rely heavily on whether or not families feel compelled to leave their living rooms or not. It's a gamble, but if anyone call pull it off it's Disney.

Johnny English Reborn will prosper overseas and flounder in the U.S. Star Rowan Atkinson has never been as big here as he is abroad, and that won't change with this sequel.

Check out our predictions for these films as well as others in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
I Don't Know How She Does It Sep 16, 2011 Weinstein Company
$7,000,000 $20,000,000
Drive (2011) Sep 16, 2011 FilmDistrict
$13,000,000 $42,000,000
The Lion King (2011 re-issue) Sep 16, 2011 Disney
$7,000,000 $20,000,000
Straw Dogs (2011) Sep 16, 2011 Sony / Screen Gems
$8,000,000 $22,000,000
Johnny English Reborn Sep 16, 2011 Universal
$5,000,000 $14,000,000
Colombiana Aug 26, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$6,000,000 $15,000,000
Our Idiot Brother Aug 26, 2011 Weinstein Company
$9,000,000 $25,000,000
Fright Night (2011) Aug 19, 2011 DreamWorks
$19,000,000 $45,000,000
One Day Aug 19, 2011 Focus
$7,000,000 $20,000,000
Conan the Barbarian (2011) Aug 19, 2011 Lionsgate
$18,000,000 $42,000,000
Spy Kids: All The Time In The World Aug 19, 2011 Weinstein Company
$17,000,000 $53,000,000
Final Destination 5 Aug 12, 2011 Warner Bros. / New Line
$24,000,000 $57,000,000
30 Minutes or Less Aug 12, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$16,000,000 $53,000,000
Glee: The 3D Concert Movie Aug 12, 2011 Fox
$15,000,000 $33,000,000
The Help Aug 10, 2011 DreamWorks
$14,000,000 $55,000,000
The Change-Up Aug 5, 2011 Universal
$27,000,000 $105,000,000
Rise of the Planet of the Apes Aug 5, 2011 Fox
$33,000,000 $80,000,000
The Smurfs Jul 29, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$27,000,000 $95,000,000
Cowboys & Aliens Jul 29, 2011 Universal
$36,000,000 $98,000,000
Crazy, Stupid, Love Jul 29, 2011 Warner Bros.
$21,000,000 $75,000,000

Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.

 

Tags: Drive, Straw Dogs, I Don't Know How She Does It, The Lion King 3D, Johnny English Reborn

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