Long Range Forecast: ‘Moneyball,’ ‘Abduction,’ ‘Killer Elite,’ and ‘Dolphin Tale’

Featured Stories - on July 30, 2011 by Daniel Garris

moneyballforecast.jpgThis week we've added four new films to the Long Range Forecast. Sony's Moneyball, Lionsgate's Abduction, Open Road's Killer Elite and Warner's Dolphin Tale are all set to open on September 23.

Leading the way is Moneyball, an adaptation of the book of the same name, based on the behind the scenes happenings of the Oakland Athletics baseball team. Brad Pitt leads the film's cast, which also includes Jonah Hill and Philip Seymour Hoffman. Moneyball may be a little too inside baseball to truly break out, but it should have a solid debut at the box office and could hold up well in the days after opening weekend as it is a likely candidate for generating good word of mouth.

Twilight Saga star Taylor Lautner tries his hand at a starring role in Abduction. The John Singleton directed action-thriller appears to be more sellable than last year's Remember Me, which starred fellow Twilight Saga star Robert Pattinson, but won't have the built-in following that this year's Water For Elephants had. Expect Abduction to be very front-loaded thanks to a likely rush-out of Lautner's fans.

Jason Statham returns to the big screen in the action film Killer Elite. Statham is typically a safe bet for a debut in the neighborhood of $10 million and the added presence of Clive Owen and Robert De Niro in the cast should also help some. However, being released by new distributor Open Road Films could very well limit some of the film's potential.

Dolphin Tale will hope to draw in family audiences, but the film looks to be a tough sell, especially when factoring in 3D surcharges and cast members who aren't as popular as they once were. We aren't expecting much on opening weekend for the family film, but it could hold up well thanks to the limited amount of family fare in October.

Check out our predictions for these films as well as others in the table below.


Title Release Date Distributor
Opening Weekend Cumulative
Killer Elite Sep 23, 2011 Open Road
$12,000,000 $30,000,000
Moneyball Sep 23, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$17,000,000 $60,000,000
Abduction Sep 23, 2011 Lionsgate
$13,000,000 $32,000,000
Dolphin Tale Sep 23, 2011 Warner Bros.
$7,000,000 $25,000,000
The Lion King (2011 re-issue) Sep 16, 2011 Disney
$7,000,000 $20,000,000
Straw Dogs (2011) Sep 16, 2011 Sony / Screen Gems
$8,000,000 $22,000,000
Drive (2011) Sep 16, 2011 FilmDistrict
$13,000,000 $42,000,000
I Don't Know How She Does It Sep 16, 2011 Weinstein Company
$7,000,000 $20,000,000
Contagion Sep 9, 2011 Warner Bros.
$22,000,000 $70,000,000
Bucky Larson: Born To Be A Star Sep 9, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$4,000,000 $9,000,000
Warrior (2011) Sep 9, 2011 Lionsgate
$9,000,000 $31,000,000
Shark Night 3D Sep 2, 2011 Relativity Media
$8,000,000 $17,000,000
Apollo 18 Sep 2, 2011 Weinstein Company
$16,000,000 $35,000,000
The Debt Aug 31, 2011 Focus
$10,000,000 $25,000,000
Colombiana Aug 26, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$6,000,000 $15,000,000
Our Idiot Brother Aug 26, 2011 Weinstein Company
$9,000,000 $25,000,000
Don't Be Afraid Of The Dark Aug 26, 2011 FilmDistrict
$14,000,000 $38,000,000
Spy Kids: All The Time In The World Aug 19, 2011 Weinstein Company
$19,000,000 $65,000,000
Conan the Barbarian (2011) Aug 19, 2011 Lionsgate
$18,000,000 $42,000,000
Fright Night (2011) Aug 19, 2011 DreamWorks
$17,000,000 $40,000,000
One Day Aug 19, 2011 Focus
$7,000,000 $20,000,000
Final Destination 5 Aug 12, 2011 Warner Bros. / New Line
$26,000,000 $62,000,000
30 Minutes or Less Aug 12, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$16,000,000 $53,000,000
Glee: The 3D Concert Movie Aug 12, 2011 Fox
$12,000,000 $25,000,000
The Help Aug 10, 2011 DreamWorks
$14,000,000 $55,000,000
Rise of the Planet of the Apes Aug 5, 2011 Fox
$38,000,000 $97,000,000
The Change-Up Aug 5, 2011 Universal
$22,000,000 $85,000,000

Additional reporting by Phil Contrino and Alex Edghill.

Tags: Dolpin Tale, Killer Elite, Abduction, Moneyball


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