Weekend Predictions: 'Captain America: The First Avenger,' 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II' and 'Friends With Benefits'

Featured Stories - on July 21, 2011 by Phil Contrino

72211predictions.pngA patriotic superhero looks poised to topple a wildly popular wizard at the box office this weekend, while Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis will try to grab adult moviegoers looking for something without fantasy/sci-fi elements.

Captain America: The First Avenger opens on the heels of three superhero origin stories: Thor, X-Men: First Class and Green Lantern. Thor had the benefit of opening in 3D and IMAX, so it was able to snag a $65.7 million debut. X-Men: First Class started with $55.1 million and Lantern opened to $53.2 million. Captain America should end up in the middle of Thor and First Class.

Opening a week after Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II won't be easy, and a rush of repeat viewings could seriously hinder Captain America's debut. Paramount has to be hoping that rabid Potter fans will get multiple viewings out of their system before Friday.

As of 4 p.m. PT, Fandango.com is reporting that Captain America is responsible for 11% of daily sales. That's not bad with the shadow of Potter still looming large.

Captain America is easily outpacing Thor and Green Lantern on Facebook, but it trails Thor on Twitter. Subscribe to Boxoffice Pro to see our full Twitter and Facebook tracking list.

Look for Captain America to rake in $55 million from around 3,500 locations during its debut frame.

Potter fans are obviously pleased with the final installment, but a steep drop is unavoidable after the film's record opening. Not surprisingly, Fandango is reporting that as of 4 p.m. PT the fantasy flick still leads daily sales with a whopping 64% of sales. $52 million—or a 69% drop—looks likely during Potter's sophomore frame.

Early on, many industry prognosticators were concerned that Friends With Benefits would look too familiar to audiences who were exposed to No Strings Attached just six months earlier. After all, the two films share the same basic premise: two twentysomethings agree to have sex without getting emotionally involved. Luckily, a rush of online activity spurred in large part by dates that Mila Kunis and Justin Timberlake have set up at a Marine Corps Ball has helped the comedy stand out.

Fandango is reporting that Friends With Benefits has yet to crack the top five sellers list. That could change on Thursday as more couples plan for the weekend.

Expect Friends With Benefits to take in $24 million from around 2,700 locations this coming weekend.

Check out the rest of our top 10 predictions in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Gross
 Cumulative
Captain America: The First Avenger Jul 22, 2011 Paramount
 $55,000,000 $55,000,000
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II Jul 15, 2011 Warner Bros.
 $52,000,000 $278,500,000
Friends With Benefits Jul 22, 2011 Sony / Screen Gems
 $24,000,000 $24,000,000
Horrible Bosses Jul 8, 2011 Warner Bros. / New Line
 $11,500,000 $82,000,000
Transformers: Dark of the Moon Jun 28, 2011 Paramount / DreamWorks
 $11,300,000 $324,800,000
Zookeeper Jul 8, 2011 Sony / Columbia
 $9,200,000 $59,500,000
Cars 2 Jun 24, 2011 Disney
 $5,600,000 $176,000,000
Winnie the Pooh Jul 15, 2011 Disney
 $5,500,000 $17,700,000
Bad Teacher Jun 24, 2011 Sony / Columbia
 $2,900,000 $94,600,000
Midnight in Paris May 20, 2011 Sony Pictures Classics
 $1,500,000 $44,400,000

Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.

Tags: Friends With Benefits, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II

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