Long Range Forecast: 'Paranormal Activity 3' and 'The Three Musketeers'
Featured Stories - on August 27, 2011 by Phil Contrino
We've added Paranormal Activity 3 and The Three Musketeers to the Long Range Forecast this weekend. Both films are set to open on October 21.
There's no doubt that the Paranormal Activity franchise now dominates the sizable market of moviegoers looking for thrills around Halloween. Paranormal Activity 2 could have easily ended up showing that Paranormal Activity was a fluke hit, but it didn't. PA2 raked in a staggering $40.7 million during its opening frame on its way to a domestic cume of $84.8 million. Expect a slight decline in grosses for the third installment, leading to yet another highly profitable haul for this low-budget franchise.
The Three Musketeers has two big things going for it: it's based on a well-established story and its cast is very strong. During any other weekend in the year Musketeers would fare much better, but we're betting that many male moviegoers will go for PA3 instead.
Check out our predictions for these films as well as others in the table below.
The Debt: $8 million*/$20 million
| Title | Release Date | Distribuitor | Opening Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paranormal Activity 3 | Oct 21, 2011 | Paramount |
$34,000,000 | $73,000,000 |
| The Three Musketeers (2011) | Oct 21, 2011 | Summit |
$15,000,000 | $42,000,000 |
| Footloose (2011) | Oct 14, 2011 | Paramount |
$20,000,000 | $57,000,000 |
| The Big Year | Oct 14, 2011 | Fox |
$15,000,000 | $50,000,000 |
| The Thing (2011) | Oct 14, 2011 | Universal |
$17,000,000 | $42,000,000 |
| The Ides of March | Oct 7, 2011 | Sony |
$16,000,000 | $60,000,000 |
| WanderLust | Oct 7, 2011 | Universal |
$15,000,000 | $49,000,000 |
| Real Steel | Oct 7, 2011 | Disney / DreamWorks |
$27,000,000 | $70,000,000 |
| Dream House | Sep 30, 2011 | Universal |
$17,000,000 | $55,000,000 |
| 50/50 | Sep 30, 2011 | Summit |
$13,000,000 | $38,000,000 |
| What's Your Number? | Sep 30, 2011 | Fox |
$12,000,000 | $35,000,000 |
| Courageous | Sep 30, 2011 | Sony / TriStar |
$4,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
| Dolphin Tale | Sep 23, 2011 | Warner Bros. |
$7,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| Abduction | Sep 23, 2011 | Lionsgate |
$14,000,000 | $35,000,000 |
| Moneyball | Sep 23, 2011 | Sony / Columbia |
$17,000,000 | $60,000,000 |
| Killer Elite | Sep 23, 2011 | Open Road |
$12,000,000 | $30,000,000 |
| The Lion King 3D | Sep 16, 2011 | Disney |
$12,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| Straw Dogs (2011) | Sep 16, 2011 | Sony / Screen Gems |
$8,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
| I Don't Know How She Does It | Sep 16, 2011 | Weinstein Company |
$7,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| Drive (2011) | Sep 16, 2011 | FilmDistrict |
$13,000,000 | $42,000,000 |
| Warrior (2011) | Sep 9, 2011 | Lionsgate |
$10,000,000 | $33,000,000 |
| Contagion | Sep 9, 2011 | Warner Bros. |
$20,000,000 | $65,000,000 |
| Bucky Larson: Born To Be A Star | Sep 9, 2011 | Sony / Columbia |
$3,000,000 | $7,000,000 |
| Apollo 18 | Sep 2, 2011 | Weinstein Company |
$16,000,000* | $35,000,000 |
| Shark Night 3D | Sep 2, 2011 | Relativity Media |
$10,000,000* | $22,000,000 |
*four-day prediction
Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.
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