Long Range Forecast: 'Oz: The Great and Powerful', 'Admission', & 'Dead Man Down'
Featured Stories - on January 12, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff
Our Long Range Forecast this week has been updated with three new wide releases scheduled to open on Friday, March 8: Admission, Dead Man Down and Oz: The Great and Powerful.
Oz: The Great and Powerful
PROS:
- Disney is closely following the template the studio used to achieve great box office success with Alice in Wonderland back in March 2010.
- With a PG rating and so little for family audiences in January and February, it should attract family audiences in big numbers.
- With Sam Raimi as director and James Franco and Mila Kunis as leads, the film will also have a good chance of appealing beyond family audiences.
- In recent years March has become a stronger time of year to release event films.
CONS:
- While Alice in Wonderland generated blockbuster business at the box office, it hasn't been remembered all that fondly afterwards. That could brush off on Oz.
- By aiming for a younger and hipper feel, the film could turn off older fans of the Oz novels and 1939 film.
Admission
PROS:
- Tina Fey hasn't been in many films, but Baby Mama and Date Night both had very solid box office performances.
- The combination of Tina Fey and Paul Rudd could help the film appeal to date night audiences.
- The film could have a good chance of holding up well given the past box office history of both Fey and Rudd.
CONS:
- Opening against Oz: The Great and Powerful will be no easy task.
- As a Focus release, likely won't receive an ultra-wide opening weekend location count.
Dead Man Down
PROS:
- The re-teaming of Noomi Rapace and director Niels Arden Oplev could draw in fans of the original Girl With the Dragon Tattoo series.
CONS:
- Colin Farrell has a hit and miss history at the box office.
- Genre films with less mainstream appeal are typically tough sells; Killing Them Softly being a very recent example.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include Broken City, Mama, The Last Stand, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, Movie 43 and Parker.
Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Opening Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dead Man Down | Mar 8, 2013 | FilmDistrict |
$9,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| Admission | Mar 8, 2013 | Focus |
$15,000,000 | $50,000,000 |
| Oz: The Great and Powerful | Mar 8, 2013 | Disney |
$55,000,000 | $160,000,000 |
| Phantom (2013) | Mar 1, 2013 | RCR Media Group |
$5,000,000 | $13,000,000 |
| The Last Exorcism Part II | Mar 1, 2013 | CBS Films |
$11,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| Jack the Giant Slayer | Mar 1, 2013 | Warner Bros. / New Line |
$23,000,000 | $60,000,000 |
| 21 And Over | Mar 1, 2013 | Relativity Media |
$15,000,000 | $45,000,000 |
| Dark Skies | Feb 22, 2013 | Weinstein / Dimension |
$10,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| Snitch (2013) | Feb 22, 2013 | Lionsgate / Summit |
$13,000,000 | $35,000,000 |
| A Good Day to Die Hard | Feb 14, 2013 | Fox |
$47,000,000* | $125,000,000 |
| Safe Haven | Feb 14, 2013 | Relativity Media |
$20,000,000* | $52,000,000 |
| Escape From Planet Earth | Feb 14, 2013 | Weinstein Company |
$13,000,000* | $35,000,000 |
| Beautiful Creatures (2013) | Feb 14, 2013 | Warner Bros. |
$21,000,000* | $57,000,000 |
| Side Effects (2013) | Feb 8, 2013 | Open Road |
$21,000,000 | $65,000,000 |
| Identity Thief | Feb 8, 2013 | Universal |
$19,000,000 | $62,000,000 |
| Warm Bodies | Feb 1, 2013 | Lionsgate / Summit |
$19,000,000 | $50,000,000 |
| Bullet to the Head | Feb 1, 2013 | Warner Bros. |
$8,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters | Jan 25, 2013 | Paramount |
$15,000,000 | $35,000,000 |
| Movie 43 | Jan 25, 2013 | Relativity Media |
$12,000,000 | $32,000,000 |
| Parker | Jan 25, 2013 | FilmDistrict |
$9,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| The Last Stand | Jan 18, 2013 | Lionsgate |
$14,000,000* | $30,000,000 |
| Mama | Jan 18, 2013 | Universal |
$19,000,000* | $42,000,000 |
| Broken City | Jan 18, 2013 | Fox |
$18,000,000* | $40,000,000 |
* = Four-day weekend (Friday-Monday)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.
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