Weekend Forecast: 'Rio 2', 'Oculus', & 'Draft Day'

Featured Stories - on April 09, 2014 by BoxOffice Staff

apr11.pngApril 11 sees the release of three new films: Rio 2, Draft Day, and Oculus. Meanwhile, Captain America: The Winter Soldier is expected to hold up well in its second frame thanks to very encouraging word of mouth in the wake of its April record debut.

Rio 2

PROS:

- The first film did great business for a new animated property, earning $144 million domestically.
- Animated films have been performing well. Will the trend continue?
- With The Winter Soldier's audience skewing toward older men, that leaves an opening for Rio 2's female interest.
- Flixster buzz is encouraging.

CONS:

- Animated sequels to non-blockbuster movies haven't lived to their hype recently. See Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 and The Smurfs 2.
- Twitter activity is noticeably behind that of The LEGO Movie at the same point.
- Regardless of skewing older male, the Captain America sequel still boasts a lot of drawing power with younger audiences.

Draft Day

PROS:

- Kevin Costner's quasi-comeback over the past year has increased this film's exposure.
- With the end of March Madness, male audiences could be in the mood for a sports-themed movie.

CONS:

- 3 Days to Kill and Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit weren't big hits for Costner.
- Flixster buzz is significantly behind that of 3 Days to Kill.
- The male-leaning audience for this film may be preoccupied with Winter Soldier.

Oculus

PROS:

- The horror audience has been starved since January's Devil's Due and Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.
- Early reviews indicate this is a winner for horror fans. Could this replicate the April success of 2011's Insidious?
- Flixster activity is noticeably ahead of that of Devil's Due.

CONS:

- The lack of star names or brand recognition somewhat decreases the potential for a breakout.
- With a fairly packed market right now, how much of an audience will this attract?

Check out our full weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Captain America: The Winter Soldier Apr 4, 2014 Disney
$43,500,000 $162,000,000
Rio 2 Apr 11, 2014 Fox
$40,000,000 $40,000,000
Draft Day Apr 11, 2014 Lionsgate / Summit
$13,500,000 $13,500,000
Oculus Apr 11, 2014 Relativity Media
$13,000,000 $13,000,000
Noah Mar 28, 2014 Paramount
$8,800,000 $86,500,000
Divergent Mar 21, 2014 Lionsgate / Summit
$7,000,000 $124,500,000
God's Not Dead Mar 21, 2014 Freestyle / Pure Flix
$6,800,000 $42,300,000
The Grand Budapest Hotel Mar 7, 2014 Fox Searchlight
$4,300,000 $39,900,000
Muppets Most Wanted Mar 21, 2014 Disney
$3,200,000 $46,800,000
Mr. Peabody & Sherman Mar 7, 2014 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$2,700,000 $106,200,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Rio 2, Oculus, Draft Day, predictions

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