'Weekend Forecast: 'Fifty Shades of Grey' & 'Kingsman: The Secret Service'

Featured Stories - on February 11, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

feb13pred.pngThis four-day, double-holiday weekend sees the anticipated release of the Fifty Shades of Grey adaptation and Kingsman: The Secret Service.

Fifty Shades of Grey

PROS:

- The book series has sold more than 100 million copies worldwide, in line with Twilight, Hunger Games, and Harry Potter levels.
- The film's trailer was the most viewed of 2014. Marketing has really nailed it.
- Social media buzz is outstanding, performing at levels similar to franchise blockbusters like The Hunger Games and Twilight -- and significantly ahead of Gone Girl.
- Advance sales have set a record pace on Fandango, becoming one of the company's top five pre-sellers in history. 
- The obvious synergy created by opening a popular erotic thriller on Valentine's Day weekend. 

CONS:

- The controversial subject matter could be seen as taboo by many viewers, although early signs point to curiosity winning over a lot of moviegoers.
- Early reviews and word of mouth could have an effect before the end of the extended weekend.
- Online buzz could be inflated by the book's rabid fan base, which it partly shares with Twilight.

Kingsman: The Secret Service

PROS:

- Matthew Vaughn has directed several well-received films, namely X-Men: First Class and Kick-Ass, among fanboy-type crowds.
- Reviews are very encouraging, and the film's early overseas release has spawned early positive word of mouth online.
- Twitter and Flixster activity are strong, noticeably ahead of similar titles.
- The ensemble cast including Samuel L. Jackson, Michael Caine, and Colin Firth should be attractive to more mainstream viewers. 

CONS:

- The R-rating could limit the film's target young male audience.
- The early overseas release could be inflating online metrics to some extent.
- Despite his success, Vaughn is certainly not a box office draw at this point yet in his career.

Check out our complete 4-day weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor 4-Day Weekend Domestic Total through Monday, Feb. 16
Fifty Shades of Grey Feb 13, 2015 Universal / Focus
$95,000,000 $95,000,000
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water Feb 6, 2015 Paramount
$45,000,000 $108,500,000
Kingsman: The Secret Service Feb 13, 2015 Fox
$35,000,000 $35,000,000
American Sniper Dec 25, 2014 Warner Bros.
$25,000,000 $312,500,000
Jupiter Ascending Feb 6, 2015 Warner Bros.
$11,000,000 $34,300,000
Paddington Jan 16, 2015 Weinstein / Dimension
$6,000,000 $64,100,000
The Wedding Ringer Jan 16, 2015 Sony / Screen Gems
$5,300,000 $61,700,000
The Imitation Game Nov 28, 2014 Weinstein Company
$5,000,000 $81,200,000
Seventh Son Feb 6, 2015 Universal
$4,500,000 $13,800,000
Black or White Jan 30, 2015 Relativity Media
$4,000,000 $18,700,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Fifty Shades of Grey, Kingsman: The Secret Service, predictions

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