Weekend Forecast: 'Ted 2' & 'Max'

Featured Stories - on June 24, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

jun26pred.pngThe final weekend of June gives us Seth MacFarlane's sequel to 2012's smash hit Ted, plus a possible sleeper in the family-friendly Max.

Ted 2

PROS:

- The first film stands as the fourth highest grossing R-rated comedy of all-time, earning $54 million in its opening and $219 million domestically overall.
- MacFarlane's fan base will likely turn out again as the film's trailers promise more of what they've come to love about his style.
- The franchise boasts a stellar 21.8 million fans on Facebook entering Wednesday, one of the highest totals of any series.
- The lack of any comedies directly appealing to male audiences so far this summer should also help.

CONS:

- Although well-received at the time, the first film's popularity has tapered off a bit over the past three years. Did they wait a year too long for the sequel?
- Last year's flop A Million Ways to Die in the West didn't exactly do MacFarlane's drawing ability any favors among fans or casual viewers.
- The competition in the market (namely Jurassic World still) could soften opening weekend grosses, especially with early negative reviews that could put off some of the target audience's interest.
- Across most metrics like Twitter, Flixster, and traditional tracking, signs point to less enthusiasm than 22 Jump Street received around this same time last year.

Max

PROS:

- Promoting credits like "from the director of Remember the Titans and producer of Marley & Me" could strike a chord with audiences looking for a heartfelt crowd-pleaser.
- The film's Twitter and Facebook activity are on par with last year's Earth to Echo, respectable for a low-budget flick.
- This could strike a chord with middle America viewers thanks to the film's military connection.

CONS:

- With Inside Out performing far above even optimistic expectations, Max will have a hard time grabbing the family audience this weekend.
- Flixster activity is noticeably behind the pace of Earth to Echo.
- Awareness levels for the flick are fairly low, which could just translate to more staying power if its target audience spreads solid word of mouth in the days ahead.

Top 10 Forecast

We're predicting this weekend's top ten films will total approximately $200.9 million, representing a strong 17.5 percent increase from the same frame last year when Transformers: Age of Extinction bowed and drove the top ten to $171.04 million.

Check out our complete weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, June 28
Jurassic World Jun 12, 2015 Universal
$55,000,000 $503,000,000
Ted 2 Jun 26, 2015 Universal
$54,000,000 $54,000,000
Inside Out (2015) Jun 19, 2015 Disney
$53,000,000 $186,500,000
Max (2015) Jun 26, 2015 Warner Bros.
$15,000,000 $15,000,000
Spy (2015) Jun 5, 2015 Fox
$7,500,000 $88,200,000
San Andreas May 29, 2015 Warner Bros. / New Line
$5,500,000 $142,300,000
Dope Jun 19, 2015 Open Road
$3,000,000 $12,000,000
Insidious: Chapter 3 Jun 5, 2015 Focus / Gramercy
$2,300,000 $50,200,000
Pitch Perfect 2 May 15, 2015 Universal
$2,100,000 $181,700,000
Mad Max: Fury Road May 15, 2015 Warner Bros.
$1,800,000 $147,200,000
Avengers: Age of Ultron May 1, 2015 Disney
$1,700,000 $452,500,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Jurassic World, Inside Out, Max, Ted 2, predictions

20 Comments

What do you think?