Weekend Forecast: 'Terminator Genisys' & 'Magic Mike XXL'

Featured Stories - on June 30, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

jul1.pngJuly begins with two sequels fighting it out for the Independence Day holiday audiences. Who will win?

Terminator Genisys

PROS:

- Under new management at Paramount, the powers-that-be have touted the film has a reboot of everything that's come before. That's paid off for several franchises in the past... will it work this time?
- The return of Arnold in his most iconic role should convince fans who stayed home for Terminator Salvation in 2009 to show up.
- With around 1.2 million Facebook fans, there's definitely some interest in the reboot.

CONS:

- Early reviews lean heavily negative and could further serve to turn off the fan base yet again.
- Female moviegoers will likely be skipping this as part of any date night outing for Magic Mike XXL
- Twitter activity pales in comparison to that of recent franchise revivals like X-Men: Days of Future Past, Godzilla, and Jurassic World.
- Simply put, Arnold's reputation has taken a major hit in recent years and not many outside the die hard fans are clamoring for another Terminator movie.

Magic Mike XXL

PROS:

- The first film was one of summer 2012's surprise hits, earning almost $114 million domestically and solidifying Channing Tatum's star power.
- It's been a few weeks since female moviegoers had a choice targeted specifically to them. We expect most of that crowd from the original will return for the sequel.
- Facebook buzz is strong with nearly 2 million fans for the franchise.

CONS:

- Losing Matthew McConaughey could hurt slightly, but the rest of the returning cast will probably make up for most of the difference.
- The first film had a fair balance of men and women turning out, but the former will likely opt for Terminator Genisys, Jurassic World, or other choices this holiday weekend. 
- Reviews aren't as strong as they were for the first film.

Top 10 Forecast

BoxOffice projects this weekend's top ten will total approximately $154.65 million. That figure would represent a 34 percent increase from the same frame last year, whose top ten generated $115.3 million as July 4 fell on Friday (versus this year's Saturday).

Check out our complete weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, July 5
Inside Out (2015) Jun 19, 2015 Disney
$32,500,000 $246,000,000
Jurassic World Jun 12, 2015 Universal
$30,000,000 $555,500,000
Magic Mike XXL Jul 1, 2015 Warner Bros.
$29,000,000 $48,500,000
Terminator Genisys Jul 1, 2015 Paramount
$28,000,000 $45,000,000
Ted 2 Jun 26, 2015 Universal
$15,500,000 $62,700,000
Max (2015) Jun 26, 2015 Warner Bros.
$7,000,000 $25,000,000
Spy (2015) Jun 5, 2015 Fox
$5,300,000 $97,700,000
San Andreas May 29, 2015 Warner Bros. / New Line
$3,300,000 $147,800,000
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl Jun 12, 2015 Fox Searchlight
$1,500,000 $4,000,000
Dope Jun 19, 2015 Open Road
$1,300,000 $14,400,000
Faith of Our Fathers Jul 1, 2015 Pure Flix / Samuel Goldwyn
$1,250,000 $1,800,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report. 

Tags: Terminator Genisys, Magic Mike XXL, predictions

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