Weekend Forecast: 'Ant-Man' & 'Trainwreck'

Featured Stories - on July 15, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

ant-train.pngMarvel's 12th entry in their cinematic universe hits theaters this weekend, while Amy Schumer's leading actress debut vies to counter-program.

Ant-Man

PROS:

- There's no denying the power of the Marvel brand name, which can (and always has, thus far) padded casual audience interest in even their most obscure properties.
- Known for starring in comedies, Paul Rudd taking the lead should let audiences know they can expect a fun popcorn film.
- Reviews, while not glowing, have been healthier than expected given the film's shaky production.
- Online buzz has been quite strong, especially on Flixster where it boasts nearly as many anticipation votes as Guardians of the Galaxy did at the same point.

CONS:

- Marvel fans already have low expectations since director Edgar Wright left the project after many years in pre-production.
- Twitter activity, while solid overall, is significantly behind that of Guardians of the Galaxy. Ditto for Facebook.
- Will the relative audience disappointment of Avengers: Age of Ultron have an immediate effect on this just two-and-a-half months later?
- Marvel brand or no, Ant-Man is still a very obscure and little-known character to non-fans -- and one that hasn't had the kind of exciting and unique marketing campaign as past Marvel properties.

Trainwreck

PROS:

- Star/writer Amy Schumer is riding a wave of momentum thanks to her heavy promotion of the film over the last few months, plus a hit TV show (Inside Amy Schumer).
- Director Judd Apatow could bring his considerable fan base with him into this flick.
- Strong reviews suggest the film will play well as both a raunchy comedy and a date night option.

CONS:

- It's been a somewhat tough summer for R-rated comedies to break out.
- Social media buzz is modest across the board, although that's not surprising.
- Opening against a Marvel film will likely narrow down this pic's audience to a largely female one (Apatow flicks usually rely on men).

Top 10 Forecast

BoxOffice forecasts this weekend's top ten films will tally $194.6 million. By comparison, that would mark a 49 percent increase over the same weekend last year which generated $130.55 million -- a frame that saw The Purge: Anarchy, Planes: Fire and Rescue, and Sex Tape open behind Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in its second weekend.

Check out our complete weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, July 19
Ant-Man Jul 17, 2015 Disney
$64,000,000 $64,000,000
Minions Jul 10, 2015 Universal
$58,000,000 $226,000,000
Trainwreck Jul 17, 2015 Universal
$30,000,000 $30,000,000
Inside Out (2015) Jun 19, 2015 Disney
$11,800,000 $306,500,000
Jurassic World Jun 12, 2015 Universal
$10,000,000 $609,700,000
Terminator Genisys Jul 1, 2015 Paramount
$6,800,000 $82,300,000
Magic Mike XXL Jul 1, 2015 Warner Bros.
$5,500,000 $59,600,000
The Gallows Jul 10, 2015 Warner Bros. / New Line
$3,500,000 $17,400,000
Ted 2 Jun 26, 2015 Universal
$2,600,000 $77,300,000
Self/Less Jul 10, 2015 Focus / Gramercy
$2,400,000 $10,500,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Trainwreck, Ant-Man, predictions

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