Weekend Forecast: 'The Martian' & 'Sicario'

Featured Stories - on September 30, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

oct2pred.pngOctober kicks off with two wide releases, both strongly reviewed films from highly regarded filmmakers old and new. Our forecast...

The Martian

PROS:

- The pairing of well-liked star Matt Damon with a venerable director like Ridley Scott is an appealing combination for this well-reviewed sci-fi survivalist adventure.
- Andy Weir's book -- on which the film is based -- has been a consistent best-seller, adding to the film's built-in upfront appeal.
- Social media activity is generally strong, receiving an extra boost in the past few days thanks to NASA's real life announcement of discovering flowing water on Mars. You can't beat free press like that.

CONS:

- Damon's last major starring vehicle, Elysium, opened to underwhelming numbers -- although that film was somewhat held back by more modest reviews and a shaky marketing campaign.
- Competing against the expansion of fellow well-reviewed pic Sicario could cut into the adult audience.
- Overall Facebook and Flixster totals aren't on the same level of Interstellar, although the momentum has slowly started to shift more in favor of The Martian lately.

Sicario

PROS:

- Strong reviews are propelling Denis Villeneuve's follow-up film to Prisoners.
- Emily Blunt continues to pick strong leading roles following the great reception of her supporting turns in Looper and Edge of Tomorrow.
- Twitter activity is very respectable for the genre.

CONS:

- There's certainly a history of strong limited release performers not translating quite the same once they reach nationwide play.
- The darker tone of the film could lead to more back-loading with the competition in the market, not to mention Black Mass recently playing to a similar audience.
- With the huge buzz behind The Martian, that further mutes expectations for an immediate breakout -- but the chance is certainly still there.

Top 10 Forecast

BoxOffice projects this weekend's top ten films will gross approximately $144.2 million. That would mark a 6 percent improvement over the same weekend last year, whose top ten tallied $136.3 million as Gone Girl and Annabelle bowed to excellent $37.5 million and $37.1 million openings, respectively.

Check out our complete forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, October 4
The Martian Oct 2, 2015 Fox
$56,000,000 $56,000,000
Hotel Transylvania 2 Sep 25, 2015 Sony / Columbia
$31,000,000 $88,800,000
Sicario (2015) Sep 18, 2015 Lionsgate
$14,300,000 $17,300,000
The Intern Sep 25, 2015 Warner Bros.
$10,800,000 $35,700,000
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials Sep 18, 2015 Fox
$8,300,000 $64,000,000
Everest (2015) Sep 18, 2015 Universal
$6,800,000 $34,700,000
Black Mass Sep 18, 2015 Warner Bros.
$6,000,000 $52,500,000
The Walk Sep 30, 2015 Sony / TriStar
$4,200,000 $5,800,000
The Visit (2015) Sep 11, 2015 Universal
$3,800,000 $57,600,000
War Room Aug 28, 2015 Sony / TriStar
$3,000,000 $60,800,000
The Perfect Guy Sep 11, 2015 Sony / Screen Gems
$2,500,000 $52,700,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report. 

Tags: Sicario, The Martian, predictions

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