Long Range Forecast: 'Kung Fu Panda 3', 'Fifty Shades of Black', & 'The Finest Hours'

Featured Stories - on December 04, 2015 by BoxOffice Staff

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After nearly five years since the release Kung Fu Panda 2, Fox and DreamWorks Animation will unleash Kung Fu Panda 3 on January 29. With Kung Fu Panda 3 having the family marketplace pretty much to itself for over a month, BoxOffice expects the animated sequel to deliver one of the larger debuts ever for the month of January.

Also opening on January 29 are Open Road's Fifty Shades of Black and Disney's The Finest Hours. BoxOffice feels that Fifty Shades of Black has more opening weekend potential than The Final Hours, but also expects The Finest Hours to hold up much better after opening weekend.

Kung Fu Panda 3 (Fox / DreamWorks Animation)

PROS:

- While it fell off significantly from its predecessor, 2011's Kung Fu Panda 2 still grossed $165.2 million domestically and was well received by audiences and critics alike.

- The film's late January release date is very similar to the early February release dates of 2014's The Lego Movie and this year's The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, both of which greatly exceeded expectations.

- The film will have the family marketplace to itself throughout the month of February, as no other family films will enter the marketplace until the arrival of Disney's Zootopia on March 4.

- Early Twitter activity for Kung Fu Panda 3 has been stronger than the early Twitter activity for both Hotel Transylvania 2 and The Good Dinosaur.

CONS:

- As mentioned, Kung Fu Panda 2 fell off significantly from 2008's Kung Fu Panda. While not likely, it is still possible that the franchise's domestic audience could shrink significantly once again with Kung Fu Panda 3.

- Potential could be limited a bit by the nearly five year gap between Kung Fu Panda 3 and its predecessor.

- Kung Fu Panda 2 performed far stronger overseas than it did domestically and that gap should widen even further with Kung Fu Panda 3. As a result, online activity levels for Kung Fu Panda 3 are likely to be inflated.

Fifty Shades of Black (Open Road)

PROS:

- Marlon Wayans experienced a career resurgence with 2013's A Haunted House, which opened with $18.1 million and finished with $40.0 million domestically.

- Fifty Shades of Grey and parody seem like a perfect match for one another.

- Young adults are more likely to choose Fifty Shades of Black over The Finest Hours, especially when it comes to date night audiences.

CONS:

- 2014's A Haunted House 2 disappointed with an $8.8 million debut and $17.3 million total domestic gross.

- In general, parodies aren't anywhere near as popular as they were in the previous decade.

- Open Road has never had a film open with a three-day weekend of at least $20 million.

The Finest Hours (Disney)

PROS:

- The film features a stellar cast that includes Chris Pine, Casey Affleck, Ben Foster and Eric Bana.

- Being a Disney release could give the film a small boost, especially when it comes to holding power.

- The film will have the added advantage of higher priced 3D and IMAX admissions.

CONS:

- Early online activity for the film on both Twitter and Facebook has been soft.

- A disaster film set at sea in the 1950s is unlikely to catch the attention of audiences, especially coming so soon after Warner's In the Heart of the Sea.

- It is hard to see there being much demand or room for The Finest Hours among its target audience; with 13 Hours, The Revenant, The Hateful Eight and Star Wars: The Force Awakens all likely to still have a box office presence in late January.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Kung Fu Panda 3 Jan 29, 2016 Fox / DreamWorks Animation $44,000,000 $150,000,000
Fifty Shades of Black Jan 29, 2016 Open Road $15,000,000 $33,000,000
The Finest Hours Jan 29, 2016 Disney $10,000,000 $32,000,000
Jane Got a Gun Jan 29, 2016 Weinstein Company $6,500,000 $16,000,000
Dirty Grandpa Jan 22, 2016 Lionsgate $14,000,000 $47,000,000
The Boy Jan 22, 2016 STX Entertainment $11,500,000 $28,000,000
Ride Along 2 Jan 15, 2016 Universal $50,000,000* $118,000,000
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi Jan 15, 2016 Paramount $22,000,000* $60,000,000
The 5th Wave Jan 15, 2016 Sony / Columbia $16,000,000* $37,000,000
Norm of the North Jan 15, 2016 Lionsgate $13,000,000* $35,000,000
The Hateful Eight Jan 8, 2016 Weinstein Company $30,000,000 $110,000,000
The Revenant (2015) Jan 8, 2016 Fox $23,000,000 $100,000,000
The Forest Jan 8, 2016 Focus / Gramercy $9,000,000 $20,000,000
Joy Dec 25, 2015 Fox $20,000,000 $105,000,000
Daddy's Home Dec 25, 2015 Paramount $15,000,000 $70,000,000
Concussion (2015) Dec 25, 2015 Sony / Columbia $11,000,000 $55,000,000
Point Break (2015) Dec 25, 2015 Warner Bros. $10,000,000 $44,000,000
The Big Short Dec 23, 2015 Paramount $12,000,000 $65,000,000
Star Wars: The Force Awakens Dec 18, 2015 Disney $220,000,000 $780,000,000
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip Dec 18, 2015 Fox $12,500,000 $78,000,000
Sisters Dec 18, 2015 Universal $11,000,000 $65,000,000
In the Heart of the Sea Dec 11, 2015 Warner Bros. $17,000,000 $53,000,000

* Indicates a four-day weekend.

Daniel Garris and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: The Finest Hours, Fifty Shades of Black, Kung Fu Panda 3, predictions

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