Long Range Forecast: 'Risen' & 'Race'

Featured Stories - on December 26, 2015 by Daniel Garris

longrange122615.jpg

In what looks to be a slower frame coming a week after the traditionally stronger Presidents Day weekend frame, the weekend of February 19 will see the release of Sony's Risen and Focus' Race. BoxOffice feels that Risen will have the advantage between the two films, thanks in part to Sony's strong recent history with faith-based fare. Also opening in wide release on February 19 will be The Weinstein Company's Viral.

Risen (Sony / TriStar)

PROS:

- Through TriStar and AFFIRM Films, Sony has a very strong recent history with faith-based films. Recent faith-based hits for Sony have included this year's War Room (which grossed $67.8 million domestically) and 2014's Heaven is for Real (which grossed $91.4 million domestically).

- With a similar release date back in 2014, Fox's Son of God opened with $25.6 million and finished its domestic run with $59.7 million.

- With Easter falling on March 27, Risen could receive a boost from opening during Lent.

CONS:

- Early online activity levels for Risen have been soft, though faith-based films typically don't generate high online activity levels (especially this far out).

- Risen could come across as looking similar to NBC's A.D.: The Bible Continues miniseries from earlier this year, which could limit the film's potential.

Race (Focus)

PROS:

- Jesse Owens is one of the most famous athletes of all-time; there is potential for Race to be at least a solid performer from Owens' legacy alone.

- Back in 2013, Jackie Robinson biopic 42 broke out with a $27.5 million debut and $95.0 million total domestic gross.

CONS:

- After the success of 42, sports dramas in general have been in a downturn at the box office.

- As is the case with Risen, early online activity levels for Race are soft.

- There will likely be some audience overlap between Risen and Race.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Risen Feb 19, 2016 Sony / TriStar $16,000,000 $45,000,000
Race (2016) Feb 19, 2016 Focus $10,000,000 $30,000,000
Viral Feb 19, 2016 Weinstein / Dimension $6,000,000 $13,000,000
Deadpool Feb 12, 2016 Fox $76,000,000* $175,000,000
Zoolander 2 Feb 12, 2016 Paramount $24,000,000* $48,000,000
How to Be Single Feb 12, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $19,000,000* $38,000,000
Hail, Caesar! Feb 5, 2016 Universal $14,000,000 $48,000,000
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies Feb 5, 2016 Sony / Screen Gems $9,500,000 $25,000,000
The Choice Feb 5, 2016 Lionsgate $8,500,000 $24,000,000
Kung Fu Panda 3 Jan 29, 2016 Fox / DreamWorks Animation $44,000,000 $150,000,000
Fifty Shades of Black Jan 29, 2016 Open Road $15,000,000 $33,000,000
The Finest Hours Jan 29, 2016 Disney $10,000,000 $32,000,000
Jane Got a Gun Jan 29, 2016 Weinstein Company $5,500,000 $13,000,000
Dirty Grandpa Jan 22, 2016 Lionsgate $13,000,000 $43,000,000
The 5th Wave Jan 22, 2016 Sony / Columbia $12,500,000 $33,000,000
The Boy Jan 22, 2016 STX Entertainment $11,500,000 $28,000,000
Ride Along 2 Jan 15, 2016 Universal $50,000,000* $118,000,000
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi Jan 15, 2016 Paramount $22,000,000* $60,000,000
Norm of the North Jan 15, 2016 Lionsgate $13,000,000* $35,000,000
The Revenant Jan 8, 2016 Fox $25,000,000 $105,000,000
The Forest Jan 8, 2016 Focus / Gramercy $9,000,000 $20,000,000
The Hateful Eight Dec 31, 2015 Weinstein Company $31,000,000 $120,000,000

* Indicates a four-day weekend.

Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Tags: Race, Risen, predictions

15 Comments

What do you think?