Long Range Forecast: '10 Cloverfield Lane', 'The Young Messiah' & 'The Brothers Grimsby'
Featured Stories - on January 15, 2016 by Daniel Garris
Three new wide releases will enter the marketplace the weekend of March 11. BoxOffice expects the newly re-titled 10 Cloverfield Lane to be the weekend's top new release after it was just revealed on Thursday that the Paramount release is a "relative" to 2008's Cloverfield. Also opening in wide release will be Focus' The Young Messiah and Sony's The Brothers Grimsby.
10 Cloverfield Lane (Paramount)
- Early online anticipation for the film has exploded overnight after it was revealed on Thursday that 10 Cloverfield Lane, while not a sequel to Cloverfield, is considered a "relative" to Cloverfield. The buzz generated from that announcement has been intensified by waiting until the start of the film's marketing campaign to make the revelation official.
- Cloverfield opened with $40.1 million back in January of 2008 and went on to gross $80.0 million domestically.
- Initial online reaction to the film's trailer is very positive.
- As the first post-The Force Awakens film from J.J. Abrams' Bad Robot Productions, 10 Cloverfield Lane could get an additional boost from Abrams' growing number of fans.
- Cloverfield was extremely front-loaded. In having the two films related 10 Cloverfield Lane may not have that much appeal outside of the pre-existing Cloverfield fanbase.
- If 10 Cloverfield Lane ends up being only very loosely tied to Cloverfield that could lead to softer word of mouth, regardless of the quality of the film.
The Young Messiah (Focus)
- The film should have a built-in audience thanks to being based on the Anne Rice novel Christ the Lord: Out of Egypt.
- Releasing The Young Messiah a few weeks before Easter should provide an added boost.
- There aren't that many films that focus on the life of Jesus before he was an adult. That could help The Young Messiah stand apart from other films about Jesus that have come before it.
- Being based on a non-Biblical book about Jesus may cause many Christians to pass on the film.
- The film will be opening only three weeks after Sony's Risen and only five days before Sony's Miracles from Heaven. Competition from both of those faith-based films is likely to come into play.
- The film has been performing very softly on Twitter so far, though faith-based films typically don't generate high online activity levels (especially this far out).
The Brothers Grimsby (Sony / Columbia)
- While he has been keeping a lower profile in recent years, Sacha Baron Cohen's last vehicle, 2012's The Dictator opened with $17.4 million and grossed a respectable $59.7 million during its domestic run.
- In addition to Cohen, the film's cast also includes Mark Strong, Isla Fisher, Rebel Wilson, Gabourey Sidibe and Penélope Cruz.
- Early online activity for The Brothers Grimsby has been soft in general.
- While a different genre, the film's potential audience will likely overlap with the potential audience for 10 Cloverfield Lane.
- The film has had its release date pushed back multiple times. That usually isn't a great initial sign.
- While the film's trailer suggests that The Brothers Grimsby might be more accessible than either Brüno or The Dictator were, the film also won't benefit from the buzz generated by the controversy surrounding both of those films.
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|10 Cloverfield Lane||Mar 11, 2016||Paramount||$31,000,000||$65,000,000|
|The Young Messiah||Mar 11, 2016||Focus||$14,000,000||$45,000,000|
|The Brothers Grimsby||Mar 11, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$12,000,000||$27,000,000|
|Zootopia||Mar 4, 2016||Disney||$51,000,000||$180,000,000|
|London Has Fallen||Mar 4, 2016||Focus / Gramercy||$19,000,000||$53,000,000|
|Whiskey Tango Foxtrot||Mar 4, 2016||Paramount||$13,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Desierto||Mar 4, 2016||STX Entertainment||$6,500,000||$18,000,000|
|Gods of Egypt||Feb 26, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$14,500,000||$34,000,000|
|Triple 9||Feb 26, 2016||Open Road||$10,500,000||$31,000,000|
|Eddie the Eagle||Feb 26, 2016||Fox||$7,000,000||$20,000,000|
|Risen||Feb 19, 2016||Sony / TriStar||$16,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Race (2016)||Feb 19, 2016||Focus||$10,000,000||$30,000,000|
|The Witch||Feb 19, 2016||A24||$7,000,000||$18,000,000|
|Deadpool||Feb 12, 2016||Fox||$76,000,000*||$175,000,000|
|Zoolander 2||Feb 12, 2016||Paramount||$24,000,000*||$48,000,000|
|How to Be Single||Feb 12, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$19,000,000*||$38,000,000|
|Hail, Caesar!||Feb 5, 2016||Universal||$14,000,000||$48,000,000|
|Pride and Prejudice and Zombies||Feb 5, 2016||Sony / Screen Gems||$10,500,000||$27,000,000|
|The Choice||Feb 5, 2016||Lionsgate||$8,500,000||$24,000,000|
|Kung Fu Panda 3||Jan 29, 2016||Fox / DreamWorks Animation||$44,000,000||$150,000,000|
|Fifty Shades of Black||Jan 29, 2016||Open Road||$15,000,000||$33,000,000|
|The Finest Hours||Jan 29, 2016||Disney||$10,000,000||$32,000,000|
|The 5th Wave||Jan 22, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$12,000,000||$32,000,000|
|The Boy||Jan 22, 2016||STX Entertainment||$11,500,000||$28,000,000|
|Dirty Grandpa||Jan 22, 2016||Lionsgate||$10,500,000||$31,000,000|
* Indicates a four-day weekend.
Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.