Long Range Forecast: 'Allegiant' & 'Miracles from Heaven'

Featured Stories - on January 22, 2016 by Daniel Garris

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Lionsgate's The Divergent Series: Allegiant and Sony's Miracles from Heaven will both enter the marketplace the weekend of March 18. Allegiant will open on Friday, March 18, while Miracles from Heaven will open two days earlier on Wednesday, March 16. While BoxOffice expects Allegiant to finish comfortably ahead over opening weekend, Miracles from Heaven is expected to display stronger holding power than Allegiant after opening weekend.  We also see Allegiant decreasing significantly from the performance of last year's Insurgent.

The Divergent Series: Allegiant (Lionsgate / Summit)

PROS:

- The Divergent Series has been a very solid performer thus far. 2014's Divergent opened with $54.6 million and went on to gross $150.9 million domestically, while last year's Insurgent opened with $52.3 million and finished with $130.2 million domestically.

- While it will face competition from Miracles from Heaven, Allegiant won't have to face the fairly direct competition from Cinderella that Insurgent faced last year.

- Young adult adaptations clearly aren't as popular in general as they were only a few years ago, but they are still popular enough to deliver healthy performances, especially on opening weekend.

CONS:

- There was a clear trend of young adult sequels falling off from their predecessors during 2015. In addition to Insurgent falling off 14 percent from Divergent, Lionsgate's The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 and Fox's Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials also fell off from their predecessors.

- Unlike Insurgent, Allegiant won't receive an added boost from higher priced 3D admissions.

- Thus far Allegiant is performing relatively softly on Twitter for a young adult adaptation.

Miracles from Heaven (Sony / TriStar)

PROS:

- With a similar release back in 2014, fellow Sony / TriStar release Heaven is for Real surprised with an opening weekend take of $22.5 million and total domestic gross of $91.4 million.  Miracles from Heaven should appeal strongly to the same audiences that made Heaven is for Real a hit.

- Jennifer Garner gives Miracles from Heaven some added star power. Garner has had recent success with films aimed at family audiences as 2012's The Odd Life of Timothy Green grossed $51.9 million in total domestically, while 2014's Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day finished with $67.0 million.

- The presence of Eugenio Derbez could also give the film a boost. Back in 2013, Instructions Not Included became a surprise hit with a $10.4 million four-day start and $44.5 million total domestic gross.

CONS:

- The book the film is based on may not have the same pre-established fanbase that Heaven is for Real had.

- Miracles from Heaven will face competition from other faith-based films, as it opens just five days after Focus' The Young Messiah and 16 days before Pure Flix's God's Not Dead 2.

- The film has been performing softly on Twitter so far, though faith-based films typically don't generate high online activity levels (especially this far out).

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Divergent Series: Allegiant Mar 18, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $42,000,000 $103,000,000
Miracles from Heaven Mar 16, 2016 Sony / TriStar $19,000,000 $77,000,000
10 Cloverfield Lane Mar 11, 2016 Paramount $31,000,000 $65,000,000
The Young Messiah Mar 11, 2016 Focus $14,000,000 $45,000,000
The Brothers Grimsby Mar 11, 2016 Sony / Columbia $12,000,000 $27,000,000
Zootopia Mar 4, 2016 Disney $51,000,000 $180,000,000
London Has Fallen Mar 4, 2016 Focus / Gramercy $21,000,000 $57,000,000
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot Mar 4, 2016 Paramount $13,000,000 $45,000,000
Desierto Mar 4, 2016 STX Entertainment $6,500,000 $18,000,000
Gods of Egypt Feb 26, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $14,500,000 $34,000,000
Triple 9 Feb 26, 2016 Open Road $10,500,000 $31,000,000
Eddie the Eagle Feb 26, 2016 Fox $7,000,000 $20,000,000
Risen Feb 19, 2016 Sony / TriStar $16,000,000 $45,000,000
Race (2016) Feb 19, 2016 Focus $10,000,000 $30,000,000
The Witch Feb 19, 2016 A24 $7,000,000 $18,000,000
Deadpool Feb 12, 2016 Fox $76,000,000* $175,000,000
Zoolander 2 Feb 12, 2016 Paramount $25,000,000* $52,000,000
How to Be Single Feb 12, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $19,000,000* $38,000,000
Hail, Caesar! Feb 5, 2016 Universal $14,000,000 $48,000,000
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies Feb 5, 2016 Sony / Screen Gems $10,500,000 $27,000,000
The Choice Feb 5, 2016 Lionsgate $8,500,000 $24,000,000
Kung Fu Panda 3 Jan 29, 2016 Fox / DreamWorks Animation $48,000,000 $165,000,000
Fifty Shades of Black Jan 29, 2016 Open Road $13,500,000 $29,000,000
The Finest Hours Jan 29, 2016 Disney $9,500,000 $31,000,000

* Indicates a four-day weekend.

Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Tags: The Divergent Series: Allegiant, Miracles from Heaven, predictions

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