Long Range Forecast: 'Gods of Egypt' & 'Triple 9'
Featured Stories - on January 02, 2016 by Daniel Garris
Four new wide releases will enter the marketplace the weekend of February 26, with Lionsgate's Gods of Egypt being the highest profile of the four films. While BoxOffice feels Gods of Egypt will have an opening weekend advantage over its competitors that weekend, negative pre-release buzz surrounding the film could transfer into negative word of mouth for Gods of Egypt after it opens. That could prove beneficial to Open Road's Triple 9, especially since its early pre-release buzz has been far more positive in tone. Fox's Eddie the Eagle and A24's The Witch are also scheduled for wide release on February 26.
Gods of Egypt (Lionsgate / Summit)
- Gods of Egypt has a strong ensemble cast that includes Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Gerard Butler, Brenton Thwaites and Geoffrey Rush. Director Alex Proyas has also had a noteworthy following over the years.
- A film featuring Egyptian deities could appeal to the same moviegoers who have showed up for the Clash of the Titans and Percy Jackson films in recent years.
- The film will receive a boost from higher priced 3D admissions.
- Lackluster reaction to the film's trailer and early marketing materials has transferred into high levels of negative online activity on Twitter. The overall volume of tweets for the film at this point is also soft for a higher profile release.
- The film has generated much discussed controversy for having a largely white cast playing Egyptian characters, which has contributed to the early negative buzz surrounding the film.
- If word of mouth is indeed negative, that will lead to additional front-loading. The film should also be front-loaded to begin with given its fantasy genre and that London Has Fallen (which also features Gerard Butler) will be opening the following week on March 4.
Triple 9 (Open Road)
- Reaction to the film's trailer and early marketing have led to Triple 9 having a higher percentage of positive buzz on Twitter than that of Gods of Egypt.
- The film has a very strong ensemble cast that includes Casey Affleck, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Anthony Mackie, Aaron Paul, Norman Reedus, Woody Harrelson and Kate Winslet.
- Open Road had success in the crime genre back in 2012 with End of Watch, which opened with $13.2 million and grossed $41.0 million in total domestically.
- While Triple 9 has a strong ensemble cast, it's also not a cast full of proven box office draws.
- It's possible the film won't end up standing out from the crowd of crime films in recent years that have come before it.
- The film was originally scheduled for release this past September and has seen its release date change a few times now. Multiple release date changes usually aren't a great early sign.
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Gods of Egypt||Feb 26, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$14,500,000||$34,000,000|
|Triple 9||Feb 26, 2016||Open Road||$10,500,000||$31,000,000|
|Eddie the Eagle||Feb 26, 2016||Fox||$7,000,000||$20,000,000|
|The Witch||Feb 26, 2016||A24||$7,000,000||$18,000,000|
|Risen||Feb 19, 2016||Sony / TriStar||$16,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Race (2016)||Feb 19, 2016||Focus||$10,000,000||$30,000,000|
|Viral||Feb 19, 2016||Weinstein / Dimension||$6,000,000||$13,000,000|
|Deadpool||Feb 12, 2016||Fox||$76,000,000*||$175,000,000|
|Zoolander 2||Feb 12, 2016||Paramount||$24,000,000*||$48,000,000|
|How to Be Single||Feb 12, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$19,000,000*||$38,000,000|
|Hail, Caesar!||Feb 5, 2016||Universal||$14,000,000||$48,000,000|
|Pride and Prejudice and Zombies||Feb 5, 2016||Sony / Screen Gems||$9,500,000||$25,000,000|
|The Choice||Feb 5, 2016||Lionsgate||$8,500,000||$24,000,000|
|Kung Fu Panda 3||Jan 29, 2016||Fox / DreamWorks Animation||$44,000,000||$150,000,000|
|Fifty Shades of Black||Jan 29, 2016||Open Road||$15,000,000||$33,000,000|
|The Finest Hours||Jan 29, 2016||Disney||$10,000,000||$32,000,000|
|Jane Got a Gun||Jan 29, 2016||Weinstein Company||$5,500,000||$13,000,000|
|Dirty Grandpa||Jan 22, 2016||Lionsgate||$13,000,000||$43,000,000|
|The 5th Wave||Jan 22, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$12,500,000||$33,000,000|
|The Boy||Jan 22, 2016||STX Entertainment||$11,500,000||$28,000,000|
|Ride Along 2||Jan 15, 2016||Universal||$48,000,000*||$115,000,000|
|13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi||Jan 15, 2016||Paramount||$22,000,000*||$60,000,000|
|Norm of the North||Jan 15, 2016||Lionsgate||$13,000,000*||$35,000,000|
|The Revenant||Jan 8, 2016||Fox||$28,000,000||$120,000,000|
|The Forest||Jan 8, 2016||Focus / Gramercy||$8,000,000||$17,000,000|
* Indicates a four-day weekend.
Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.