Long Range Forecast: 'Zootopia', 'London Has Fallen' & 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot'
Featured Stories - on January 08, 2016 by Daniel Garris
Five new wide releases will enter the marketplace the weekend of March 4, with Disney's Zootopia being the clear favorite to lead the pack. The other four scheduled wide releases for the weekend include Focus' London Has Fallen, Paramount's Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, Warner's Me Before You and STX Entertainment's Desierto.
- Walt Disney Animation Studios has been on a roll ever since the release of 2010's Tangled, which grossed $200.8 million in total domestically. The animation studio's other hit films since then have included 2012's Wreck-It Ralph ($189.4 million in total domestically), 2013's Frozen ($400.7 million) and 2014's Big Hero 6 ($222.5 million).
- Zootopia is currently the only major family film scheduled for wide release between Kung Fu Panda 3 (January 29) and fellow Disney release The Jungle Book (April 15). Having the family marketplace to itself should be a big advantage for Zootopia.
- The premise and early marketing of Zootopia should appeal to both family audiences and adults.
- Zootopia is performing very well on Twitter so far for an animated film, though the film's potential appeal with adults could be inflating activity levels as well.
- The animated marketplace is coming off of two high-profile underperformers with The Peanuts Movie and The Good Dinosaur. Until the trend ends, there is the chance the trend could continue into the new year.
- While not likely, it is possible that in trying to appeal to both family and non-family audiences, Zootopia could fail to reach its potential with either or both of those audiences.
London Has Fallen (Focus / Gramercy)
- 2013's Olympus Has Fallen was a surprise hit with an opening weekend take of $30.4 million and a total domestic gross of $98.9 million.
- London Has Fallen could benefit from the lack of strong options for adults in late February and early March this year.
- London Has Fallen feels like a sequel nobody is really asking for, especially with the similarly themed White House Down having been released shortly after Olympus Has Fallen.
- The film has been performing quite softly on Twitter thus far.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot (Paramount)
- Tina Fey is coming off of the success of Sisters, which opened with $13.9 million and has already grossed $66.7 million (through January 7).
- While its activity levels have been inflated by its recent trailer, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot has totaled more tweets than London Has Fallen over the past three weeks. It's possible that Whiskey Tango Foxtrot could benefit from a potential under-performance by London Has Fallen.
- A war comedy will be a much tougher sell to audiences than Sisters was and unlike Sisters (and Baby Mama), Whiskey Tango Foxtrot doesn't feature Amy Poehler (though it does feature Margot Robbie).
- While the film's trailer has helped generate solid online activity levels, a sizable percentage of that activity has been negative in tone. That could be an early sign of the film potentially not holding up as well as usual for a film starring Fey.
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Zootopia||Mar 4, 2016||Disney||$51,000,000||$180,000,000|
|London Has Fallen||Mar 4, 2016||Focus / Gramercy||$19,000,000||$53,000,000|
|Whiskey Tango Foxtrot||Mar 4, 2016||Paramount||$13,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Me Before You||Mar 4, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$9,000,000||$28,000,000|
|Desierto||Mar 4, 2016||STX Entertainment||$6,500,000||$18,000,000|
|Gods of Egypt||Feb 26, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$14,500,000||$34,000,000|
|Triple 9||Feb 26, 2016||Open Road||$10,500,000||$31,000,000|
|Eddie the Eagle||Feb 26, 2016||Fox||$7,000,000||$20,000,000|
|Risen||Feb 19, 2016||Sony / TriStar||$16,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Race (2016)||Feb 19, 2016||Focus||$10,000,000||$30,000,000|
|The Witch||Feb 19, 2016||A24||$7,000,000||$18,000,000|
|Deadpool||Feb 12, 2016||Fox||$76,000,000*||$175,000,000|
|Zoolander 2||Feb 12, 2016||Paramount||$24,000,000*||$48,000,000|
|How to Be Single||Feb 12, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$19,000,000*||$38,000,000|
|Hail, Caesar!||Feb 5, 2016||Universal||$14,000,000||$48,000,000|
|Pride and Prejudice and Zombies||Feb 5, 2016||Sony / Screen Gems||$9,500,000||$25,000,000|
|The Choice||Feb 5, 2016||Lionsgate||$8,500,000||$24,000,000|
|Kung Fu Panda 3||Jan 29, 2016||Fox / DreamWorks Animation||$44,000,000||$150,000,000|
|Fifty Shades of Black||Jan 29, 2016||Open Road||$15,000,000||$33,000,000|
|The Finest Hours||Jan 29, 2016||Disney||$10,000,000||$32,000,000|
|Dirty Grandpa||Jan 22, 2016||Lionsgate||$13,000,000||$43,000,000|
|The 5th Wave||Jan 22, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$12,500,000||$33,000,000|
|The Boy||Jan 22, 2016||STX Entertainment||$11,500,000||$28,000,000|
|Ride Along 2||Jan 15, 2016||Universal||$47,000,000*||$113,000,000|
|13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi||Jan 15, 2016||Paramount||$22,000,000*||$60,000,000|
|Norm of the North||Jan 15, 2016||Lionsgate||$11,500,000*||$31,000,000|
* Indicates a four-day weekend.
Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.