Weekend Forecast: 'The Revenant', 'The Boy', 'Dirty Grandpa' & 'The 5th Wave'
Featured Stories - on January 20, 2016 by Daniel Garris
Holdovers appear set to lead the way this weekend, as not much is expected from this weekend's three new wide releases. After finishing in a close second each of the past two weekends, BoxOffice expects Fox's The Revenant to move into first place this weekend. Meanwhile, Universal's Ride Along 2 and Disney's Star Wars: The Force Awakens will likely find themselves in a close race for second place.
As for the new wide releases, BoxOffice feels that STX Entertainment's The Boy, Lionsgate's Dirty Grandpa and Sony's The 5th Wave will find themselves closely bunched together in places fourth through sixth, due in part to the potential audience overlap between the three films. Paramount's 13 Hours could also find itself in that mix thanks to strong word of mouth and an expansion into Canada this weekend.
This weekend's overall box office is also likely to be negatively affected by both Winter Storm Jonas on the East coast and by Sunday's NFL Conference Championship Games (which are being played on the weekend after Martin Luther King weekend for the first time since back in 2012).
- PG-13 horror films have a strong history of exceeding expectations during the month of January; with the $12.7 million debut of The Forest earlier this month being the most recent example.
- The film's concept and PG-13 rating will both help it appeal towards younger horror fans.
- STX Entertainment had success with The Gift last year, which opened with $11.9 million and went on to gross $43.8 million domestically.
- After initially starting out relatively well on Twitter, the film has failed to build momentum on Twitter as its release date has approached.
- The stronger than expected performance of The Forest may have limited potential demand for The Boy.
- There will likely be some overlap between the potential audiences for The Boy and The 5th Wave.
- Robert De Niro has had recent success with comedies Last Vegas and The Intern. In addition to their performances, both films went over very well with audiences.
- Dirty Grandpa is generating more tweets on Twitter than The Intern was in the days leading up to its release, though the added presence of Zac Efron is sure to be inflating Twitter activity for Dirty Grandpa.
- The film has the potential to appeal to a wider range of audience demographics than either The Boy or The 5th Wave and will likely have the best holding power of the three after this weekend.
- While the film's Twitter activity is solid for a De Niro film, it is soft for an Efron film. That suggests that Efron's fanbase isn't that excited about the film.
- Efron has an up (Neighbors, The Lucky One & 17 Again) and down (We Are Your Friends, That Awkward Moment & Charlie St. Cloud) track record at the box office.
- Sunday's NFL Conference Championships (and perhaps Winter Storm Jonas as well) will likely have a bigger impact on Dirty Grandpa than they will on either The Boy or The 5th Wave.
The 5th Wave
- Chloë Grace Moretz's previous two vehicles, 2013's Carrie and 2014's If I Stay opened with $16.1 million and $15.7 million respectively.
- The 5th Wave grossed an encouraging $8.6 million overseas this weekend, which included grosses of $1.5 million in Australia and $1.2 million in Germany.
- The film has been generating significantly more tweets on Twitter than both Dirty Grandpa and The Boy this week.
- Young adult adaptations tend to be hit or miss at the box office. With that in mind, there is the possibility The 5th Wave could perform below its already modest expectations.
- While the film is generating more tweets than both Dirty Grandpa and The Boy; Moretz's previous films have a history of especially inflated online activity. The early overseas launch is likely inflating online activity for The 5th Wave as well.
- There will likely be some overlap between the potential audiences for The 5th Wave and The Boy.
Top 10 Forecast
BoxOffice projects this weekend's top ten films will total $109.8 million. That would represent a 19.6 percent decline from the $136.5 million top ten total of the same weekend last year, which was led by the $64.6 million take of Warner's American Sniper during its second weekend of wide release. That weekend also saw the $14.9 million second place debut of Universal's The Boy Next Door and soft starts by both Disney's Strange Magic ($5.5 million) and Lionsgate's Mortdecai ($4.2 million).
Check out our complete forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total Through Sunday, Jan 24
|The Revenant (2015)||Dec 25, 2015||Fox||$20,500,000||$124,300,000|
|Ride Along 2||Jan 15, 2016||Universal||$16,500,000||$63,000,000|
|Star Wars: The Force Awakens||Dec 18, 2015||Disney||$16,000,000||$881,000,000|
|The Boy||Jan 22, 2016||STX Entertainment||$11,800,000||$11,800,000|
|Dirty Grandpa||Jan 22, 2016||Lionsgate||$10,800,000||$10,800,000|
|The 5th Wave||Jan 22, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$10,700,000||$10,700,000|
|13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi||Jan 15, 2016||Paramount||$9,700,000||$33,500,000|
|Daddy's Home||Dec 25, 2015||Paramount||$5,500,000||$139,100,000|
|Norm of the North||Jan 15, 2016||Lionsgate||$4,500,000||$14,700,000|
|The Big Short||Dec 11, 2015||Paramount||$3,800,000||$57,100,000|
|Sisters||Dec 18, 2015||Universal||$2,900,000||$86,000,000|
Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.