Long Range Forecast: 'The Boss', 'Before I Wake' & 'Hardcore Henry'

Featured Stories - on February 12, 2016 by Daniel Garris

longrange021216.jpg

Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

The weekend of April 8 will see three new films going into wide release. BoxOffice expects Universal's The Boss, starring Melissa McCarthy and Kristen Bell, to be the strongest performer of the three. Also opening on April 8 are Relativity's Before I Wake and STX Entertainment's Hardcore Henry. At this point BoxOffice sees Before I Wake and Hardcore Henry having similar opening weekend performances, but feels that Hardcore Henry should have the stronger holding power of the two.

The Boss (Universal)

PROS:

- Melissa McCarthy has been a strong draw at the box office since the break-out performance of Bridesmaids in 2011. Total domestic grosses for her films since then have included $159.6 million for 2013's The Heat, $134.5 million for 2013's Identity Thief, $110.8 million for 2015's Spy and $84.5 million for 2014's Tammy.

- McCarthy's films have a consistent history of displaying strong holding power after opening weekend.

- McCarthy and Kristen Bell could prove to be a duo that appeals to moviegoers.

CONS:

- Early Twitter activity for The Boss is soft, though the film's generic title is likely coming into play.

- Tammy and Spy didn't perform as strongly as The Heat and Identity Thief. With that in mind, it is quite possible that The Boss will represent another decline in McCarthy's drawing power.

- The film's R rating could limit potential in this case, as the film's premise seems better suited for a PG-13 comedy when it comes to the box office.

Before I Wake (Relativity Studios)

PROS:

- The premise of the PG-13 rated Before I Wake could appeal towards younger horror fans.

- Director Mike Flanagan's previous effort, 2014's Oculus, had a respectable performance for Relativity with a debut of $12.0 million and final domestic gross of $27.7 million.

CONS:

- The delay to Before I Wake as a result of Relativity's bankruptcy last year could have a negative effect on the film's potential.

- The early April marketplace is currently very crowded with horror films, as Before I Wake will open just one week after Paramount's Rings and The Weinstein Company's Amityville: The Awakening and just two weeks after fellow Relativity release The Disappointments Room.

Hardcore Henry (STX Entertainment)

PROS:

- Early online reaction to the film's trailer has been very promising.

- The first-person perspective of Hardcore Henry could help it appeal strongly with gamers.

CONS:

- The film's first-person perspective could come across as gimmicky, especially outside of the video game and film buff communities.

- While early Twitter activity for the film has been respectable, it's not out of this world, especially for a film that is likely to have inflated online activity in general.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Boss Apr 8, 2016 Universal $20,000,000 $70,000,000
Before I Wake Apr 8, 2016 Relativity Studios $9,000,000 $22,000,000
Hardcore Henry Apr 8, 2016 STX Entertainment $8,500,000 $24,000,000
God's Not Dead 2 Apr 1, 2016 Pure Flix $14,000,000 $43,000,000
Rings (2016) Apr 1, 2016 Paramount $13,000,000 $29,000,000
Amityville: The Awakening Apr 1, 2016 Weinstein / Dimension $8,500,000 $19,000,000
Collide Apr 1, 2016 Open Road $6,500,000 $18,000,000
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice Mar 25, 2016 Warner Bros. $154,000,000 $380,000,000
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 Mar 25, 2016 Universal $14,000,000 $50,000,000
The Disappointments Room Mar 25, 2016 Relativity Studios $7,500,000 $18,000,000
The Divergent Series: Allegiant Mar 18, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $42,000,000 $103,000,000
Miracles from Heaven Mar 16, 2016 Sony / TriStar $19,000,000 $77,000,000
10 Cloverfield Lane Mar 11, 2016 Paramount $31,000,000 $65,000,000
The Young Messiah Mar 11, 2016 Focus $13,000,000 $42,000,000
The Brothers Grimsby Mar 11, 2016 Sony / Columbia $12,000,000 $27,000,000
Zootopia Mar 4, 2016 Disney $51,000,000 $180,000,000
London Has Fallen Mar 4, 2016 Focus / Gramercy $21,000,000 $57,000,000
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot Mar 4, 2016 Paramount $13,000,000 $45,000,000
Desierto Mar 4, 2016 STX Entertainment $6,500,000 $18,000,000
Gods of Egypt Feb 26, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $14,000,000 $33,000,000
Triple 9 Feb 26, 2016 Open Road $11,000,000 $32,000,000
Eddie the Eagle Feb 26, 2016 Fox $8,000,000 $23,000,000
Risen Feb 19, 2016 Sony / TriStar $11,500,000 $38,000,000
Race (2016) Feb 19, 2016 Focus $10,000,000 $30,000,000
The Witch Feb 19, 2016 A24 $7,500,000 $25,000,000

Tags: The Boss, Before I Wake, Hardcore Henry, predictions

19 Comments

What do you think?