Long Range Forecast: 'The Jungle Book', 'Barbershop: The Next Cut' & 'Criminal'
Featured Stories - on February 19, 2016 by Daniel Garris
Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
The Jungle Book, Disney's latest live-action revision of one of its animated classics, will arrive in theatres on April 15. BoxOffice expects a healthy performance from the Jon Favreau directed adventure film, though we're also cautious when it comes to The Jungle Book reaching the same box office heights as last year's Cinderella and 2014's Maleficent.
The weekend of April 15 will also see the release of Warner's Barbershop: The Next Cut and Lionsgate's Criminal. BoxOffice sees the Ice Cube led Barbershop: The Final Cut having the stronger opening between the two, but also expects the Kevin Costner led Criminal having stronger holding power after opening weekend.
The Jungle Book (Disney)
- Disney's recent live-action revisions of its animated classics have all been strong box office performers. 2010's Alice in Wonderland exploded with a $116.1 million debut and went on to gross $334.2 million in total, 2014's Maleficent opened with $69.4 million and grossed $241.4 million in total, while last year's Cinderella opened with $67.9 million and finished with $201.2 million.
- The animated version of The Jungle Book ranks highly among Disney's highest grossing animated films when adjusting for ticket price inflation, though obviously the film benefited from receiving three major re-issues over the years.
- The Jungle Book boasts a strong vocal cast that includes Bill Murray, Ben Kingsley, Idris Elba, Lupita Nyong'o, Scarlett Johansson and Christopher Walken.
- Early online activity levels and reaction to the film's trailers have both been positive.
- In comparison to last year's Cinderella, The Jungle Book will have the advantage of higher priced 3D admissions and will likely have more four-quadrant appeal.
- While they have still been very strong, grosses for Disney's live-action revisions have been declining as more have been released. The Jungle Book could decline further from Cinderella with that in mind, especially when it comes to admissions.
- The Jungle Book may not break out with female moviegoers to the degree that both Maleficent and Cinderella did, especially with The Huntsman: Winter's War opening the following weekend.
- In addition to facing competition from The Huntsman: Winter's War, overall demand for The Jungle Book could also be limited a bit from fellow Disney releases Captain America: Civil War and Alice Through the Looking Glass both opening in May.
Barbershop: The Next Cut (Warner Bros. / New Line / MGM)
- The original Barbershop films were both strong performers. 2002's Barbershop opened with $20.6 million and went on to gross $75.8 million in total, while 2004's Barbershop opened with $24.2 million and finished its run with $65.1 million. These grosses are even more impressive when taking into account ticket price inflation since then.
- Ice Cube has remained a strong box office draw in recent years with the success of the Ride Along films and last year's NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton.
- New Line and MGM recently successfully re-launched the Rocky franchise with Creed and exceeded expectations in the process.
- As was recently seen with both 2014's Dumb and Dumber To and this year's Zoolander 2, it isn't easy for long-awaited comedy sequels to live up to the performances of their predecessors, especially when it comes to admissions.
- While it's still early, Barbershop: The Next Cut has been performing softly on Twitter this far out.
Criminal (Lionsgate / Summit)
- Kevin Costner has had very steady drawing power at the box office with his post-Man of Steel films. Costner's last five films have all opened in the range of $6 million to $15 million and have finished with total grosses in the range of $21 million to $51 million.
- The cast for Criminal also includes Gary Oldman, Tommy Lee Jones, Gal Gadot, Alice Eve and Ryan Reynolds (though Reynolds isn't being mentioned in the film's posters).
- Early activity levels for the film on Twitter have been solid.
- While Costner has been a solid draw in recent years, he also hasn't had any recent break-out performances either and isn't the box office draw he once was.
- Criminal may not stand out enough from other similar action thrillers over the years. The film could come across as being especially similar to last year's Self/Less, which was a box office disappointment with a debut of $5.4 million and a total gross of just $12.3 million.
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|The Jungle Book (2016)||Apr 15, 2016||Disney||$60,000,000||$185,000,000|
|Barbershop: The Next Cut||Apr 15, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$18,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Criminal (2016)||Apr 15, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$11,000,000||$33,000,000|
|The Boss||Apr 8, 2016||Universal||$20,000,000||$70,000,000|
|Before I Wake||Apr 8, 2016||Relativity Studios||$9,000,000||$22,000,000|
|Hardcore Henry||Apr 8, 2016||STX Entertainment||$8,500,000||$24,000,000|
|God's Not Dead 2||Apr 1, 2016||Pure Flix||$14,000,000||$43,000,000|
|Amityville: The Awakening||Apr 1, 2016||Weinstein / Dimension||$8,500,000||$19,000,000|
|Collide||Apr 1, 2016||Open Road||$6,500,000||$18,000,000|
|Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice||Mar 25, 2016||Warner Bros.||$154,000,000||$380,000,000|
|My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2||Mar 25, 2016||Universal||$14,000,000||$50,000,000|
|The Disappointments Room||Mar 25, 2016||Relativity Studios||$7,500,000||$18,000,000|
|The Divergent Series: Allegiant||Mar 18, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$42,000,000||$103,000,000|
|Miracles from Heaven||Mar 16, 2016||Sony / TriStar||$19,000,000||$77,000,000|
|10 Cloverfield Lane||Mar 11, 2016||Paramount||$31,000,000||$65,000,000|
|The Young Messiah||Mar 11, 2016||Focus||$13,000,000||$42,000,000|
|The Brothers Grimsby||Mar 11, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$12,000,000||$27,000,000|
|Zootopia||Mar 4, 2016||Disney||$56,000,000||$200,000,000|
|London Has Fallen||Mar 4, 2016||Focus / Gramercy||$21,000,000||$57,000,000|
|Whiskey Tango Foxtrot||Mar 4, 2016||Paramount||$13,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Triple 9||Feb 26, 2016||Open Road||$12,500,000||$38,000,000|
|Gods of Egypt||Feb 26, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$11,000,000||$27,000,000|
|Eddie the Eagle||Feb 26, 2016||Fox||$7,500,000||$23,000,000|