Long Range Forecast: 'X-Men: Apocalypse' & 'Alice Through the Looking Glass'

Featured Stories - on April 01, 2016 by Daniel Garris

longrange040116.jpg

Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

One of the summer's biggest box office battles is likely to take place on May 27 when both Fox's X-Men: Apocalypse and Disney's Alice Through the Looking Glass enter the marketplace over Memorial Day weekend. While 2010's Alice in Wonderland was a stronger performer than 2014's X-Men: Days of Future Past, BoxOffice feels X-Men: Apocalypse should have the significant edge over Alice Through the Looking Glass in their upcoming box office battle.

X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox)

PROS:

- 2014's X-Men: Days of Future Past helped rebuild the popularity of the X-Men franchise with a four-day opening weekend take of $110.6 million and final domestic gross of $233.9 million. The film was also very well received by moviegoers and critics alike.

- X-Men: Apocalypse has been performing well on Twitter this far out. Recent activity for the film has been 22 percent softer than Twitter activity for Deadpool at the same point in its cycle earlier this year. In addition, X-Men: Apocalypse has been performing significantly stronger than Alice Through the Looking Glass on Twitter.

- While the stand-alone aspect of Deadpool may not transfer into a huge boost for X-Men: Apocalypse, the strong reception to Deadpool could provide a bit of a boost, especially given the strong reception to X-Men: Days of Future Past as well.

- The additions of Apocalypse, Psylocke and Archangel and the re-additions of Cyclops and Jean Grey should help further build anticipation for the film among X-Men fans.

CONS:

- The level of competition X-Men: Apocalypse will face. In addition to opening the same weekend as Alice Through the Looking Glass, the film arrives just three weeks after Disney's highly anticipated Captain America: Civil War and one week before Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows. Given that level of competition, there may only be so much room for improvement over the performance of Days of Future Past.

- Given how well received X-Men: Days of Future Past was by moviegoers and critics it will be tough for X-Men: Apocalypse to match the reception to that film.

Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney)

PROS:

- 2010's Alice in Wonderland had a break-out performance with a $116.1 million three-day debut and a final domestic gross of $334.2 million. While Alice Through the Looking Glass is likely to fall off significantly from that performance, it is a very high point to start from.

- His drawing power isn't what it once was, but Johnny Depp is still a strong draw at the box office, especially when it comes to fantasy roles. And in a fairly similar situation (after a four-year wait in between films), 2011's Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides performed well at the box office.

- Initial online reaction to the new "white rabbit" trailer for Alice Through the Looking Glass looks to be quite positive.

CONS:

- Opening against X-Men: Apocalypse will be tough. In addition, the film will also face competition for family audiences initially from Sony's The Angry Birds Movie and from both Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows and fellow Disney release Finding Dory later in its run.

- The six-year gap between Alice Through the Looking Glass and its predecessor is likely to limit the film's potential.

- Grosses for Alice in Wonderland were boosted significantly by the film's 3D admissions, especially coming so soon after Avatar. The 3D boost to grosses for Alice Through the Looking Glass will likely be a lot less than it was for its predecessor.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
X-Men: Apocalypse May 27, 2016 Fox $124,000,000* $260,000,000
Alice Through the Looking Glass May 27, 2016 Disney $74,000,000* $180,000,000
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising May 20, 2016 Universal $54,000,000 $145,000,000
The Angry Birds Movie May 20, 2016 Sony / Columbia $43,000,000 $140,000,000
The Nice Guys May 20, 2016 Warner Bros. $12,000,000 $37,000,000
Money Monster May 13, 2016 Sony / TriStar $11,000,000 $32,000,000
The Darkness May 13, 2016 High Top / BH Tilt $6,000,000 $13,000,000
Captain America: Civil War May 6, 2016 Disney $167,000,000 $435,000,000
Keanu Apr 29, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $20,000,000 $50,000,000
Mother's Day (2016) Apr 29, 2016 Open Road $13,000,000 $45,000,000
Ratchet & Clank Apr 29, 2016 Focus / Gramercy $7,500,000 $19,000,000
The Huntsman: Winter’s War Apr 22, 2016 Universal $30,000,000 $75,000,000
The Jungle Book (2016) Apr 15, 2016 Disney $62,000,000 $190,000,000
Barbershop: The Next Cut Apr 15, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $17,000,000 $42,000,000
Criminal (2016) Apr 15, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $11,000,000 $33,000,000
The Boss Apr 8, 2016 Universal $17,500,000 $60,000,000
Hardcore Henry Apr 8, 2016 STX Entertainment $10,500,000 $30,000,000

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.

Tags: X-Men: Apocalypse, Alice Through the Looking Glass, predictions

230 Comments