NORTH AMERICA: Weekend Estimates: 'Spy' Softer Than Expected with $30.0M; 'San Andreas' Continues to Impress with $26.4M; 'Insidious: Chapter 3' Takes Third with $23.0M; 'Entourage' Disappoints with $10.4M

on June 06, 2015

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Sunday Update: As had been widely expected, Fox's Spy debuted in first place this weekend with an estimated $30.0 million. However, the Melissa McCarthy led comedy opened below expectations, which had tended to range from $35 million to $40 million. Despite very strong critical reviews, Spy wasn't able to open as strong as some of McCarthy's previous efforts, as it opened 23 percent below the $39.12 million start of 2013's The Heat and 13 percent below the $34.55 million debut of 2013's Identity Thief. The potential for Spy appears to have been limited by the stronger than expected performance of Warner's San Andreas thus far and by audiences who are waiting for Universal's Jurassic World to arrive next weekend.

Spy took in $10.30 million on Friday (which included an estimated $1.5 million from Thursday shows that started at 5 p.m.), increased a slim 8 percent on Saturday to gross $11.13 million and is estimated to decline 23 percent on Sunday to gross $8.58 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.91 to 1. The film received a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore. In all likelihood Spy will hold up well going forward, as McCarthy's films have a history of displaying strong holding power. However, competition will be fierce throughout June with the arrival of the mentioned Jurassic World, Disney's Inside Out and Universal's Ted 2.

On the heels of last weekend's break-out start, San Andreas experienced a very respectable second weekend hold with an estimated second place take of $26.44 million. The Dwayne Johnson led 3D disaster film declined 52 percent from last weekend. San Andreas is on the brink of the $100 million domestic mark with a ten-day start of $99.07 million. That places the film 22.5 percent ahead of the $80.88 million ten-day take of 2013's G.I. Joe: Retaliation and 20 percent behind the $123.70 million ten-day gross of 2013's World War Z. San Andreas will hope to see its healthy word of mouth help withstand the direct hit it will take from Jurassic World next weekend.

Focus' Insidious: Chapter 3 followed in third place with an estimated $23.0 million. The third chapter of the horror franchise from Gramercy and Blumhouse Productions debuted on the low end of pre-release expectations. Insidious: Chapter 3 opened a significant 43 percent below the $40.27 million debut of 2013's Insidious: Chapter 2; but had been widely expected to open softer than its predecessor due in part to its nature as a prequel. Insidious: Chapter 3 opened just ahead of the recent $22.62 million three-day start of Fox's Poltergeist and the close proximity of the films to one another may have ultimately weakened the break-out potential for both.

Insidious: Chapter 3 opened with $10.41 million on Friday (which included an estimated $1.55 million from Thursday evening shows), fell a sizable 27 percent on Saturday to gross $7.58 million and is estimated to decline 34 percent on Sunday to gross $5.01 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at an expectedly front-loaded 2.21 to 1. Insidious: Chapter 3 received a B+ rating on CinemaScore, which is very healthy by horror film standards. Going forward Insidious: Chapter 3 will hope to hold up a bit better than its predecessor did (a feat that was accomplished by The Purge: Anarchy last summer).

Meanwhile, Warner's Entourage was off to a soft estimated fourth place start of just $10.42 million. The theatrical version of the HBO comedy series opened below expectations, which had been strengthened due in part to the film's strong online pre-sales earlier in the week. Since its release on Wednesday, Entourage has grossed $17.80 million in its first five days. That places the film 27 percent behind the $24.48 million five-day start of 2012's The Dictator. Entourage has been very front-loaded thus far, especially for a film of its size. The film's five-day to three-day ratio of 1.71 to 1 strongly indicates that the film only appealed to the series' pre-existing fanbase and isn't a good sign going forward. Given its significant front-loading thus far, the film's strong A- rating on CinemaScore likely won't make much of an impact.

Fellow Warner Bros. release Mad Max: Fury Road rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated $7.97 million. The critically acclaimed action film starring Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron was down a respectable 44 percent from last weekend. Thanks in part to very solid holding power for its genre, Mad Max: Fury Road continues to perform on the very high end of expectations with a 24-day take of $130.80 million.

Universal's Pitch Perfect 2 claimed sixth place with an estimated $7.74 million. The successful musical comedy sequel starring Anna Kendrick was down a sizable 48 percent from last weekend. While it remains front-loaded, in the bigger picture Pitch Perfect 2 is still exceeding expectations in a big way with a 24-day gross of $161.02 million.

Disney's Tomorrowland placed in seventh with $7.02 million. The pricy Brad Bird directed sci-fi film starring George Clooney was down a sharp 51 percent. Tomorrowland has grossed a softer than expected $76.24 million in 17 days and has clearly taken a hit from mixed word of mouth on the heels of what was already an underwhelming start over Memorial Day weekend.

Saturday Update: Insidious Chapter 3 pulled out a close first place finish on Friday with an estimated $10.4 million. That figure is off 49 percent from its predecessor's $20.23 million first day back in September 2013, but it is 11 percent ahead of the recent Poltergeist remake's $9.35 million opening day. Given Chapter 3's nature as a prequel lacking the main stars of the first two films, it wasn't expected to quite live up to the previous film's box office success. Still, Blumhouse has a history of keeping budgets in check, so this is still another undeniable financial victory for the studio. Critics have given the film a 59 percent Rotten Tomatoes score, while word of mouth is only somewhat mixed at a 73 percent score this morning. BoxOffice is projecting a $23.9 million opening weekend.

In a close second place, Spy pulled $10.3 million in its first day of play, and will certainly win the weekend overall. The latest Melissa McCarthy-Paul Feig collaboration was off 25 percent from their opening day of The Heat ($13.72 million) two years ago, but Spy has strong enough word of mouth and buzz to drive it through this weekend and well beyond. The film boasts an impressive 95 percent score from critics, and a respectable 85 percent from RT users. For the weekend, BoxOffice projects a $32 million bow.

San Andreas was off 58 percent from its first day last week to $7.65 million on Friday, a solid drop for the disaster flick starring Dwayne Johnson. The film's eight-day total is $80.28 million, putting it 22 percent ahead of the pace of Johnson-starred G.I. Joe: Retaliation. Look for a $25 million sophomore frame.

In fourth place yesterday was Entourage, adding $3.705 million. That gives the flick $11.09 million in the bank through three days of release, and puts it on pace for a generally soft $10.9 million over the three-day weekend and an overall $18.28 million five-day (Wednesday through Sunday) opening.

Pitch Perfect 2 filled out the top five yesterday as it eased 43 percent from last Friday to $2.6 million. The hit comedy sequel has earned a stellar $155.88 million to-date, and should net around $8.4 million this weekend.

Meanwhile, Mad Max: Fury Road and Tomorrowland were in a close battle for sixth place on Friday. The former pulled $2.31 million yesterday and is projected to take in $8.3 million this weekend, while the latter Disney pic grossed $2.15 million on Friday and could land around $8.1 million for its third frame.

Last but not least, Avengers: Age of Ultron took in $1.825 million yesterday. With a $433.64 million domestic take thus far, the Marvel sequel will overtake E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial ($435.1 million) on the all-time domestic chart sometime on Saturday.

Check BoxOffice on Sunday for official weekend estimates from the studios.

Friday Update #2: According to early reports, here's how things are shaping up for the weekend:

Spy: $37 million-$39 million
Insidious: Chapter 3: $26 million
Entourage: $15 million 

Check back tomorrow for official studio numbers and updated projections. 

Friday Update #1: Sources report that Insidious Chapter 3 claimed $1.55 million from early shows beginning at 7pm Thursday night. That's just under half of what The Conjuring pulled ($3.3 million) in July 2013, and slightly above the $1.4 million of Poltergeist two weeks ago. The previous film in the Insidious franchise bowed to $1.5 million from 10pm Thursday shows, although that Chapter 2 flick debuted in September.

Spy took in an estimated $1.5 million from even earlier shows beginning at 5pm yesterday. The latest Melissa McCarthy/Paul Feig collaboration is riding a wave of strong pre-release buzz and critical reviews into a weekend it's widely expected to win. By comparison, The Heat pulled $1.0 million from 10pm Thursday night shows in June 2013.

Meanwhile, Entourage's second full day of release posted a sharp 63 percent decline from Wednesday to an estimated $2.01 million on Thursday. With $7.38 million in the bank through two days of release, it's looking safe to say the film will fall well short of the optimistic expectations behind it following reports of strong pre-sales. The flick could still see a solid rebound on Friday, but it will come in a distant third among this weekend's openers.

Check back for more updates throughout today and the weekend.

Tags: Insidious Chapter 3, Entourage, Spy, north-america

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