NORTH AMERICA: Weekend Estimates: 'Jurassic World' Remains #1 with $54.2M; 'Inside Out' A Close Second with $52.1M; 'Ted 2' Underwhelms with $33.0M Debut; 'Max' Off to Solid $12.2M Start

on June 27, 2015

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Sunday Update: In what turned out to be a very tight race for first place this weekend, Universal's Jurassic World was able to hold off Disney's Inside Out with an estimated weekend take of $54.22 million. The two films were separated by only $2.09 million over the weekend frame. Jurassic World claimed the third largest third weekend performance of all-time without adjusting for ticket price inflation; behind only the $68.49 million third weekend take of 2009's Avatar and the $55.64 million third weekend take of 2012's Marvel's The Avengers.

Jurassic World is estimated to surpass the $500 million mark on Sunday and has grossed $500.06 million in 17 days. In reaching the $500 million domestic milestone in 17 days, Jurassic World easily shattered the previous record of 23 days held by The Avengers. Jurassic World is now the highest grossing release of 2015 to date domestically as it has zoomed past the $452.43 million total gross of Avengers: Age of Ultron. Without adjusting for ticket price inflation, Jurassic World is already the fifth highest grossing film of all-time domestically. The film is running an extremely impressive $42.39 million and 9 percent ahead of the $457.67 million 17-day take of The Avengers.

Inside Out held up very nicely this weekend with an estimated second place take of $52.13 million. The critically acclaimed 3D computer animated blockbuster from Pixar declined 42 percent from last weekend's already stronger than expected debut. That represented a stronger second weekend percentage hold than those of both 2013's Monsters University (which fell 45 percent to gross $45.61 million) and 2010's Toy Story 3 (which fell 46 percent to gross $59.34 million). Extremely strong word of mouth and critical reviews, being a non-sequel and being more weekend heavy than other recent Pixar films all helped Inside Out this weekend. Inside Out continues to exceed its already lofty expectations in a big way with a ten-day take of $184.95 million. That places the film 8.5 percent ahead of the $170.43 million ten-day gross of Monsters University and 18.5 percent behind the $226.89 million ten-day take of Toy Story 3.

While Jurassic World and Inside Out continued to excel this weekend, Ted 2 was off to a very underwhelming third place start with an estimated $33.0 million. The Seth MacFarlane directed comedy sequel from Universal and MRC opened well below pre-release expectations, which had tended to range anywhere from $45 million to $60 million heading into the weekend. Ted 2 appears to have suffered significantly from being unable to stand out from its predecessor and mixed critical reviews didn't help matters either. There's also little doubt that potential for the film was ultimately limited by the breakout performances of both Jurassic World and Inside Out. Ted 2 opened 39 percent below the $54.42 million debut of 2012's Ted and as a sequel is highly likely to be more front-loaded than its predecessor was.

Ted 2 started out with $13.3 million on Friday (which included an estimated $2.6 million from Thursday evening shows), fell a lackluster 16 percent on Saturday to gross $11.2 million and is estimated to decline 24 percent on Sunday to take in $8.5 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.48 to 1. The audience breakdown for Ted 2 skewed towards male moviegoers (59 percent) and slightly towards moviegoers 25 years and older (51 percent). Ted 2 received a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore and will hope to hold up well going forward with additional help from the upcoming Independence Day holiday frame.

Meanwhile, Max debuted in line with its far more modest expectations with an estimated fourth place take of $12.21 million. The modestly budgeted family film from Warner Bros. and MGM was off to a solid start this weekend, especially given the competition it faced for family audiences from Inside Out. Max comfortably outpaced the $8.36 million opening weekend take of last year's Earth to Echo and nearly matched the $13.57 million five-day debut of that film (which opened on a Wednesday). There haven't been many dog themed wide releases in recent years, but Max opened just ahead of the $11.60 million start of 2010's Marmaduke.

Max opened with $4.36 million on Friday (which included an estimated $0.50 million from Thursday evening shows), increased a slim 3 percent on Saturday to gross $4.49 million and is estimated to fall 25 percent on Sunday to take in $3.37 million. That gives the film an estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio of 2.80 to 1. The audience breakdown for Max skewed towards female moviegoers (55 percent) and moviegoers over the age of 25 (57 percent). Max received a strong A rating on CinemaScore. The film is likely to hold up well going forward, though it will also be facing further competition for family audiences from Universal's highly anticipated Minions beginning on July 10.

Fox's Spy rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated $7.8 million. The Melissa McCarthy led comedy held up well again this weekend as it was down just 30.5 percent. After getting out of the gates slower than expected, Spy has stabilized nicely over the past two weeks thanks in part to strong word of mouth. Spy also likely received an added boost this weekend from the softer than expected start of Ted 2. The 24-day total for Spy stands at $88.35 million, which places the film 18 percent behind the $107.43 million 24-day take of 2013's Identity Thief.

Saturday Update #2: Disney reports that Pixar's Inside Out held onto first place Friday with an estimated $14.99 million, down 56 percent from its opening day last weekend. That brings the strongly received animated pic's domestic total up to $147.81 million through just eight days of release, putting it 39 percent ahead of the pace of Up and 20 percent behind the pace of Toy Story 3. BoxOffice projects a close race for the top spot with Jurassic World this weekend, giving Inside Out the slight advantage for now with a $50 million weekend.

Speaking of Jurassic World, Universal reports a $14.7 million Friday estimate for the mega blockbuster, putting it down 49.5 percent from last Friday and increasing its domestic haul to $460.5 million. The film is the fastest in history to eclipse the $450 million domestic threshold, doing so in 15 days (besting the first Avengers' 17 days). That also pushes it past Avengers: Age of Ultron to become 2015's top domestic grosser so far, while leap-frogging both that pic and The Dark Knight Rises ($448 million) on the all-time domestic chart where Jurassic World now ranks #7. The franchise revival will next overtake the original Star Wars: A New Hope ($461 million) and Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace ($474.5 million) on Saturday. Overall, Jurassic World is pacing more than 10 percent ahead of where the first Avengers stood at the same point. BoxOffice projects a $49.5 million third weekend, although Universal itself is projecting $50.5 million. Either way, the race between it and Inside Out is too close to confidently call at this point.

Debuting in third place yesterday, Ted 2 pulled $13.2 million -- including Thursday night's $2.6 million start. Unfortunately, that's 36 percent off the opening day of 2012's first flick, and according to Universal will translate to an opening weekend around $34 million (the original debuted to $54.4 million). Early word of mouth also appears to be hindering things: the sequel's Flixster score stands at 75 percent this morning (compared to 22 Jump Street's 91 percent one year ago) while critics have given it a disappointing 46 percent.

Warner Bros. and MGM's Max put up a respectable debut yesterday with $4.35 million. That bests the $2.65 million Wednesday opening of last year's Earth to Echo, a film which similarly targeted families and audiences in more rural areas of the country with its counter-programming to the bigger titles in the market. Max's 76 percent Flixster score is reasonably solid for its genre, although critics haven't taken to it (39 percent). BoxOffice is projecting a $13 million opening frame.

Filling out the top five, Spy added $2.12 million yesterday for a 32 percent Friday-to-Friday drop. Its domestic total is now $82.67 million. BoxOffice projects a $6.9 million weekend.

Meanwhile, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl expanded into 354 locations this weekend, generating $292,000 on Friday for an $825 per-theater average. Its domestic tally stands at $1.156 million so far as the well-reviewed indie flick looks to net around $890,000 this weekend. Its theatrical expansion will continue next week.

Check BoxOffice on Sunday for official weekend estimates from the studios.

Saturday Update #1: While Jurassic World and Inside Out are still chasing the $50 million mark this weekend, Ted 2 is falling short with an estimated haul of $30 million or so.

Check back later this morning for more updates. 

Friday Update #2: Based on early reports, it's going to be a close race for first place this weekend. Both Jurassic World and Inside Out look to be on pace for a sum in the $50 million-$53 million range. Meanwhile, Ted 2 should land $47 million-$49 million. Max is on pace for $13.5 million.

Check tomorrow for updated projections.

Friday Update #1: Sources report that Ted 2 grabbed an estimated $2.6 million from 8pm shows in 2,647 theaters last night. That's an overall positive start for the Seth MacFarlane/Mark Wahlberg sequel, and exactly matches the $2.6 million earned from the first film's early shows in late June 2012. However, that flick opened at midnight and in less than half as many theaters (1,090) against Magic Mike (which earned $2.1 million at midnight). With somewhat softer tracking for Ted 2 versus its predecessor entering the weekend, it remains to be seen whether or not the sequel can match the original's $54.4 million opening weekend.

Also opening this weekend is Max from Warner Bros. and MGM as it hopes to catch some of the family crowd. That will prove challenging as well with both Jurassic World and Inside Out poised to continue holding very well as we close out June. Max debuted to $500,000 last night, slightly ahead of the $430,000 taken in by When the Game Stands Tall last August (on its way to an $8.4 million frame). 

More updates as they come.

Tags: Jurassic World, Inside Out, Max, Ted 2, north-america

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