NORTH AMERICA: Weekend Estimates: 'Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation' Takes off with $56.0M Debut; 'Vacation' Arrives with Soft $21.2M in Five Days After $14.85M Weekend Take

on August 01, 2015

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Sunday Update: Paramount's Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation delivered this weekend with an estimated first place debut of $56.0 million. The well received fifth installment of the Tom Cruise led action franchise opened towards the higher end of its wide ranging expectations. Without adjusting for ticket price inflation, Rogue Nation claimed the second largest opening weekend take of the Mission: Impossible franchise; behind only the $57.85 million opening weekend of 2000's Mission: Impossible II. Rogue Nation opened 17 percent ahead of the $47.74 million debut of 2006's Mission: Impossible III, though it should also be noted that the opening weekend of Mission: Impossible III adjusts to $61.15 million when taking into account ticket price inflation. Pre-release tracking had been surprisingly soft for Rogue Nation, but the film was ultimately able to get off to a good start thanks in part to its very strong critical reviews and to the rest of the marketplace being fairly empty for this time of year.

Rogue Nation opened with $20.32 million on Friday (which included an estimated $4.0 million from Thursday evening shows), fell a slim 3 percent on Saturday to gross $19.71 million and is estimated to decline 19 percent on Sunday to gross $15.98 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at a solid 2.76 to 1. Early word of mouth appears to be very strong for Rogue Nation, as the film received an A- rating on CinemaScore and currently boasts a 92 percent audience score on Flixster. With that in mind, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation is likely to hold up relatively well going forward, though the film will also face significant competition over the next two weeks from Fox's Fantastic Four, Universal's Straight Outta Compton and Warner's The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

The audience breakdown for Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation skewed heavily towards moviegoers 25 years and older (81 percent) and towards male moviegoers (62 percent).

Warner's Vacation debuted in a distant second place this weekend with $14.85 million. The comedy franchise re-launch starring Ed Helms and Christina Applegate has grossed $21.17 million in five days since opening on Wednesday. That is below the already scaled back expectations for the film. Vacation is running a distant 44 percent behind the $37.91 million five-day launch of 2013's We're the Millers. Instead, Vacation performed much more in line with the $19.10 million five-day start of 2012's Hope Springs. Poor critical reviews certainly didn't help matters for Vacation and the film's R rating appears to have limited some of its potential with younger moviegoers this weekend as 64 percent of the film's audience was 25 years and older. Vacation skewed slightly towards female moviegoers (53 percent).

On the positive side of things, Vacation was quite back-loaded towards the weekend as it registered an estimated five-day to three-day weekend ratio of 1.43 to 1. That suggests that the film may be naturally back-loaded going forward. Over the three-day frame, Vacation had an estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio of 3.30 to 1 (the film took in $4.50 million on Friday, increased 28 percent on Saturday to gross $5.77 million and is estimated to decrease 21 percent on Sunday to gross $4.58 million). Vacation may also be aided by the relative lack of new comedies arriving in the marketplace throughout the rest of August. On the other hand, the film's modest B rating on CinemaScore isn't the most encouraging early sign, though it does suggest that the film is going over better with moviegoers than it has with critics.

It was a close race for third place this weekend between Ant-Man and Minions. Disney's Ant-Man currently has the edge for third with an estimated weekend take of $12.62 million. The Paul Rudd led 3D superhero film from Marvel was down a sizable 49 percent from last weekend, as it clearly took a direct hit from the arrival of Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation in the marketplace. Ant-Man has grossed a solid $132.15 million through 17 days of release. That places the film just 8 percent behind the $143.20 million 17-day gross of 2011's Captain America: The First Avenger.

Minions placed in fourth with an estimated $12.16 million. The 3D computer animated prequel from Universal and Illumination Entertainment currently trails Ant-Man by only an estimated $464,000 for the frame. Minions was down a significant 47 percent from last weekend, as the film continues to feel the effect of mixed word of mouth (especially among adults). With that said, Minions has grossed an impressive $287.35 million in 24 days. That places the film 3 percent behind the $295.26 million 24-day take of 2013's Despicable Me 2.

Sony's Pixels rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated $10.4 million. The Adam Sandler led 3D action comedy fell a sharp 57 percent from last weekend. The film's percentage hold was lackluster, especially on the heels of last weekend's much softer than expected debut. With a ten-day gross of $45.61 million, Pixels is running a disappointing 42.5 percent behind the $79.39 million ten-day gross of 2013's Grown Ups 2 and just ahead of the $44.56 million ten-day take of 2012's Battleship.

Trainwreck followed in sixth with an estimated $9.69 million. The critically acclaimed Amy Schumer led comedy from director Judd Apatow was down a respectable 44 percent. While Trainwreck has already registered a total gross to opening weekend ratio of 2.65 to 1, the film is also displaying more front-loading than is often usual for a film from Apatow; likely a result of Schumer's fanbase having rushed out to see the film. Trainwreck has grossed a strong $79.70 million in 17 days, which places it an impressive 35 percent ahead of the $59.09 million 17-day gross of 2009's Julie & Julia.

The Weinstein Company's Southpaw landed in seventh place with an estimated $7.52 million. The Jake Gyllenhaal led sports drama was down a sharp 55 percent from last weekend, which does take a bit of the luster off of last weekend's stronger than expected debut. Even with this weekend's decline, Southpaw is still off to a solid ten-day start of $31.58 million. The film is currently running 22 percent ahead of the $25.98 million ten-day gross of 2012's End of Watch.

Saturday Update: Paramount reports that Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation earned a solid $20.3 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night's $4 million start. Yesterday's bow was almost 4 percent stronger than 2011's Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($19.5 million), which also opened in early August. Rogue's first day take is also 22 percent higher than Mission: Impossible III's $16.6 million bow in May 2006, which adjusts to a comparable $20.6 million using 2015 ticket prices. Early word of mouth for the fifth installment in the series is excellent as the pic boasts an "A-" CinemaScore and a 93 percent Flixster user score, one of the three best day-after-release scores among all 2015 releases -- and that's on top of its excellent 93 percent rating from critics. Beyond the film's strong reviews, goodwill from the previous blockbuster installment (Ghost Protocol) is carrying over here. We fully expect long legs throughout the remainder of summer. BoxOffice is projecting an opening weekend around $55 million for the Tom Cruise vehicle.

In second place, the Vacation revamp added $4.5 million on Friday, giving it a domestic total of $10.82 million through three days of play. By comparison, that's 46 percent lower than We're the Millers at the same point. Unfortunately, the comedy sequel isn't finding much traction following negative reviews (28 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and poor word of mouth (64 percent on Flixster; "B" CinemaScore). BoxOffice is projecting a three-day weekend of $13.9 million for Vacation, which would give it a disappointing overall five-day start of $20.2 million.

Meanwhile, Ant-Man claimed third place yesterday with $3.625 million (off 50 percent from last Friday). That gives Marvel's 12th chapter $123.15 million through 15 days of release. BoxOffice projects a $12.4 million third frame.

Just behind in fourth place, Minions declined 47 percent from last Friday to $3.6 million yesterday. The prequel has now banked $278.8 million domestically. Look for a weekend around $12 million, according to Universal.

Filling out the top five, Pixels sank 65 percent from its opening day last week to $3.15 million yesterday. With an underwhelming eight-day domestic tally of $38.36 million, the Adam Sandler pic is heading toward a sophomore frame around $10.3 million.

Check BoxOffice on Sunday for official weekend estimates from the studios.

Friday Update #2: Sources report that Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation is trending for a possible opening day close to $20 million. If that early projection holds, the well-reviewed Tom Cruise franchise pic could be heading for an opening weekend of $50 million or more.

Meanwhile, Vacation is heading for a three-day frame around $12-13 million, which would give it a disappointing five-day opening south of $20 million. The comedy franchise revival could even potentially rank behind Ant-Man and Minions for the weekend.

Check BoxOffice on Saturday morning for more concrete weekend projections based on the studios' official Friday estimates.

Friday Update #1: Paramount reports this morning that Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation earned an estimated $4.0 million from Thursday's opening night shows. That's a strong start for the fifth entry in the Tom Cruise franchise, besting the $3.7 million earned by Mad Max: Fury Road in May and nearly matching Dawn of the Planet of the Apes' $4.1 million Thursday start last summer. It remains to be seen how front-loaded the new Mission will be, but with strong reviews, excellent early word of mouth, and an audience that will likely skew older, things are trending toward solid opening weekend.

Meanwhile, Vacation was off 36 percent from opening day to an estimated $2.46 million on Thursday. That's a somewhat sharper drop than the 30.5 percent Wed-to-Thu decline seen by 2013's We're the Millers, putting Vacation a little over 45 percent behind that film's two-day total with $6.28 million.

More to come later today and throughout the weekend.

Thursday Update: Warner Bros. reports that Vacation took in an estimated $3.805 million on opening day Wednesday, including Tuesday's early grosses. By comparison, that's 44 percent below the Wednesday bow ($6.78 million) of August 2013's We're the Millers.

Wednesday Update: Warner Bros. reports that Vacation grossed $1.2 million from last night's early shows. That's a solid start for the franchise sequel, although it falls short of the $1.7 million earned by We're the Millers in August 2013 with its mid-week release. The latter flick went on to tally $37.9 million over its five-day debut (including a $26.4 million three-day weekend). Considering poor reviews are plaguing the Vacation revival, the film won't hit that level of performance in the coming days. At its current pace, a five-day bow below $30 million is looking more likely.

More updates as they come throughout the week and weekend.

Tags: Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, Vacation, north-america

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