NORTH AMERICA: Weekend Estimates: 'The Martian' and 'Hotel Transylvania 2' Both Zoom Past the $100M Mark After Respective $37.0M and $20.3M Takes; 'Pan' Soft with $15.5M Debut; 'The Walk' Disappoints with $3.65M

on October 10, 2015

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Sunday Update: Fox's The Martian took in an estimated $37.0 million this weekend to lead the box office for a second consecutive frame. The critically acclaimed Ridley Scott directed 3D sci-fi film starring Matt Damon held up nicely this weekend, as it was down just 32 percent from last weekend. In comparison, 2013's Gravity declined 23 percent in its second weekend to gross $43.19 million, while last year's Interstellar fell 40 percent to gross $28.31 million. The Martian surpassed the $100 million mark this weekend and has grossed an excellent $108.71 million in ten days. The film is currently running 12 percent ahead of the $96.93 million Interstellar had grossed after ten days of wide release and 11 percent behind the $122.32 million ten-day take of Gravity. Thanks in part to strong word of mouth and strong critical reviews The Martian is likely to continue to hold up well throughout the month of October.

Sony's Hotel Transylvania 2 held steady in second place this weekend with an estimated $20.3 million. The Adam Sandler led 3D computer animated film from Sony Pictures Animation continued to hold up well, as it declined 39 percent from last weekend. Like The Martian, Hotel Transylvania 2 also surpassed the $100 million domestic mark this weekend. With a strong 17-day take of $116.82 million, Hotel Transylvania 2 is running an impressive 14 percent ahead of the $102.13 million 17-day gross of 2012's Hotel Transylvania (which fell 36 percent in its third weekend to gross $17.24 million). Hotel Transylvania 2 will face added competition for family audiences next weekend when fellow Sony release Goosebumps enters the marketplace.

Pan was off to a soft third place start with an estimated $15.53 million. Warner's pricey 3D adventure fantasy starring Hugh Jackman opened below its already held in check expectations and performed poorly with its expensive price tag in mind. Potential for the Peter Pan origin story was always modest to begin with and the film's delay from the summer to the fall and poor critical reviews didn't help matters either. Pan opened a disappointing 43 percent below the $27.32 million start of 2011's Real Steel, which was also released over Columbus Day weekend.

Pan started out with $5.22 million on Friday (which included an estimated $650,000 from Thursday evening shows), increased 16 percent on Saturday to gross $6.07 million and is estimated to decline 30 percent on Sunday to gross $4.25 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.98 to 1. The audience breakdown for Pan skewed towards female moviegoers (55 percent) and slightly towards moviegoers over the age of 25 (52 percent). Pan received a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore. While that suggests that the film is going over better with audiences than it has with critics, it should also be noted that the film's current audience score on Flixster stands at a lackluster 52 percent. Pan could take a direct hit next weekend from the mentioned arrival of Goosebumps this coming Friday.

Fellow Warner Bros. release The Intern followed in fourth place with an estimated $8.66 million. The Nancy Meyers directed comedy starring Robert De Niro and Anne Hathaway held up especially well this weekend, as it was down a slim 26 percent. Strong word of mouth, the film skewing heavily towards older moviegoers and the relative lack of comedies in the current marketplace are all helping boost holding power for the film. The Intern has grossed $49.57 million in 17 days, which places the film 6.5 percent ahead of the $46.53 million 17-day take of 2013's Last Vegas.

Lionsgate's Sicario rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated $7.35 million. The critically acclaimed crime thriller starring Emily Blunt, Benicio Del Toro and Josh Brolin was down 39.5 percent from last weekend. While that represented a solid weekend hold, it also suggests that the film isn't going over quite as well with audiences as it has with critics. Sicario has grossed a solid $26.71 million through 24 days of release (with the film's first two weeks having been in platform release).

Meanwhile, Sony's The Walk continued to under-perform in a big way with an estimated seventh place take of just $3.65 million in its first weekend of wide release. The critically acclaimed 3D Robert Zemeckis directed film starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt only managed a per-location average of $1,455 for the frame and that was with the aid of higher priced IMAX admissions.  The twelve-day total for The Walk stands at $6.36 million.  Despite strong critical reviews, The Walk hasn't been able to catch on with moviegoers due in part to very tough competition and not having the most mainstream friendly concept to begin with. The Walk received an excellent A+ rating on CinemaScore, but strong word of mouth likely won't help much in this case given the film's poor performance thus far.

On the other end of the box office spectrum, Universal's Steve Jobs was off to a terrific start in platform release with an estimated $521,000 from 4 locations in New York and Los Angeles. That gave the Danny Boyle directed drama starring Michael Fassbender a massive per-location average of $130,250 for the frame, which easily represented the strongest platform per-location average of 2015 thus far. Strong critical reviews and the legacy of Steve Jobs have helped to build up anticipation for the film and the film's strong platform launch is likely to build further momentum for the film going forward. Steve Jobs will be playing in an estimated 60 locations next weekend and will expand into wide release on October 23rd.

Saturday Update: Fox reports that The Martian easily retained first place to begin its second weekend with $10.75 million on Friday, down just 41 percent from opening day last week. That gives the strongly received adaptation of Andy Weir's novel from director Ridley Scott an eight-day domestic haul of $82.46 million, putting it 7 percent ahead of the pace of Interstellar and 10 percent behind Gravity. BoxOffice is projecting an excellent sophomore frame of $36.8 million for the Matt Damon-led film.

Repeating in second place this weekend will be Sony's Hotel Transylvania 2 as it eased just 29 percent from last Friday to $5.3 million yesterday. In the process, the hit animated sequel crossed the $100 million domestic barrier and now stands with $101.8 million earned stateside through 15 days of play -- 14 percent ahead of where its predecessor stood at the same point. BoxOffice projects a $23 million third weekend.

Debuting in third place on Friday and for the weekend is Warner Bros.' Pan. Peter's origin story landed a modest $5.2 million opening day (including Thursday night's $650,000), falling 32 percent short of Jack the Giant Slayer's $7.69 million opening Friday in March 2013. The latter film was also considerably less front-loaded after its $400,000 Thursday night previews, leading us to believe Pan may not hold up nearly as well over the weekend despite the potential for family business. Early word of mouth is struggling as well with a "B+" CinemaScore, a 21 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, and a low-for-its-genre 51 percent Flixster user rating as of this morning. The studio will be looking to international performances to help the film out in the long run. BoxOffice projects a $16.2 million opening weekend in North America.

The Intern fell just 26 percent from last Friday to $2.665 million yesterday in fourth place. That gives Nancy Meyers' latest hit dramedy a 15-day tally of $43.6 million. BoxOffice projects a healthy $8.7 million third frame.

Sicario claimed fifth place yesterday with $2.26 million, down 47 percent from last Friday's first day in wide expansion. With $21.6 million in the bank so far, the well-received film is eyeing a $7.2 million weekend.

Meanwhile, The Walk expanded nationwide following nine days of IMAX release. Unfortunately, the results didn't improve much as the pic earned $1.15 million yesterday. That gives it a $3.86 million domestic total so far, and the studio is projecting a $3.7 million weekend. The film's financial performance stateside is in stark contrast to its actual reception though with Robert Zemeckis' love letter to 1970s New York and Paris earning an "A+" CinemaScore from audiences under 25, an "A-" overall, a strong 86 percent score from Rotten Tomatoes critics, and a very encouraging 85 percent audience score on Flixster. Sony reports the film's production budget was $35 million.

Last but certainly not least, Universal debuted Steve Jobs in four New York/Los Angeles theaters yesterday to a resounding $175,000 -- giving it a robust $43,750 per-location average. That bests the $135,602 opening day of Birdman last October (also in four locations), while far surpassing director Danny Boyle's 127 Hours and its first day of $77,262 (in four locations). Strong buzz and reviews are building the biopic's momentum as its wide expansion in two weeks draws near. Universal is projecting a fantastic $530,000 take for this weekend as a whole.

Follow BoxOffice on Sunday for updated weekend estimates from the studios.

Friday Update #2: Based on early reports, here's how the weekend seems to be shaping up:

The Martian: $32.5 million-$33.5 million
Pan: $17.5 million-$19 million
The Walk: $5 million-$6 million

Check back tomorrow for updated projections and official studio numbers. 

Friday Update #1: Warner Bros. reports that Pan earned $650,000 from Thursday night's early shows. There aren't many strong comparisons at this point with the potentially family-friendly film's October release, although worth mentioning are titles like Cinderella ($2.3 million Thursday earnings) and Oz the Great and Powerful ($2 million). If Pan were to hold up throughout the weekend similar to those titles, it could have a shot at an opening weekend close to $20 million.

The Walk also expands into nationwide release this weekend as it hopes to build on momentum from strong reviews and generally positive word of mouth after a very modest IMAX launch.

Meanwhile, The Martian is fully expected to hold onto the top spot at the box office for its second frame, while Hotel Transylvania 2 will continue to hold strongly as well.

More updates as they come.

Tags: north-america, Steve Jobs, Hotel Transylvania 2, The Walk, The Martian, Pan

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