NORTH AMERICA: Weekend Estimates: 'Spectre' Leads with $73.0M Launch; 'The Peanuts Movie' Impresses in Second with $45.0M; 'The Martian' Holds Well with $9.3M

on November 07, 2015

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Sunday Update: Spectre debuted in first place this weekend with an estimated $73.0 million. The latest installment of Sony and MGM's James Bond franchise opened towards the lower end of its wide ranging expectations. Compared to the most recent opening weekend performances of the James Bond franchise, Spectre opened 17 percent below the $88.36 million start of 2012's Skyfall and 8 percent ahead of the $67.53 million opening of 2008's Quantum of Solace. However, it should be noted that the opening weekend take of Quantum of Solace stands at $78.91 million when adjusting for ticket price inflation. While Spectre was off to a solid start this weekend, the goodwill with audiences left behind by Skyfall failed to help lead to a break-out debut for Spectre. Mixed critical reviews, especially from critics in North America, also appear to have taken a toll on the film's potential.

Spectre opened with $28.00 million on Friday (which included an estimated $5.25 million from Thursday evening shows), declined 4.5 percent on Saturday to take in $26.75 million and is estimated to fall 32 percent on Sunday to gross $18.25 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.61 to 1. In comparison, Skyfall had a stronger ratio of 2.90 to 1 (though the figure is inflated a bit from part of that film's Thursday night previews not being officially counted towards its opening weekend take), while Quantum of Solace had a weaker ratio of 2.50 to 1. Spectre received a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore. The film (and the marketplace in general) could receive an added boost next weekend with not much being expected from next weekend's new wide releases.

IMAX grosses were responsible for an estimated $15.4 million of the overall weekend gross for Spectre.

The Peanuts Movie placed in second with an estimated $45.0 million start. While the long-awaited 3D computer animated adaptation from Fox and Blue Sky debuted well behind Spectre this weekend, The Peanuts Movie performed more in line with pre-release expectations and is very likely to hold up far better than Spectre going forward. Without adjusting for ticket price inflation, The Peanuts Movie debuted only 8 percent below the $49.04 million start of 2012's Wreck-It Ralph and just ahead of the $44.31 million debut of 2007's Alvin and the Chipmunks. The opening weekend performance of The Peanuts Movie, along with the film's strong critical reception, suggests that we'll be seeing more theatrical Peanuts films in the future.

The Peanuts Movie started out with $12.10 million on Friday (the film didn't have Thursday evening previews), increased a promising 62 percent on Saturday to gross $19.60 million and is estimated to slide 32 percent on Sunday to take in $13.30 million. That gives the film an estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio of 3.72 to 1. In addition to its strong critical reviews, The Peanuts Movie received a strong A rating on CinemaScore. It will be important for The Peanuts Movie to hold up well over the next couple weeks, especially with Pixar's highly anticipated The Good Dinosaur entering the marketplace on Wednesday, November 25th.

After leading the box office four of the past five weekends, fellow Fox release The Martian fell to third this weekend with an estimated $9.30 million. The blockbuster Ridley Scott directed 3D sci-fi film starring Matt Damon was down just 21 percent from last weekend. That represented an exceptional hold, especially given the new direct competition the film faced from Spectre and that last week's one-week IMAX run for The Martian is now over. The Martian is on the verge of reaching the $200 million domestic mark with an impressive 38-day gross of $197.07 million. That places the film 18 percent ahead of the $166.75 million Interstellar grossed after 38 days of wide release and 15 percent behind the $231.25 million 38-day take of 2013's Gravity.

Goosebumps claimed fourth place with an estimated $6.97 million. Sony's 3D horror comedy starring Jack Black was down 29 percent from last weekend. Goosebumps continues to perform in line with expectations with a 24-day gross of $66.44 million. The film is currently running 24 percent ahead of the $53.73 million 24-day take of last year's Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day.

Disney and DreamWorks' Bridge of Spies rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated $6.09 million. The critically acclaimed Steven Spielberg directed thriller starring Tom Hanks continued to hold up nicely, as it was down a slim 27 percent. Bridge of Spies has grossed a healthy $54.97 million in 24 days, which already gives the film a current total gross to opening weekend ratio of 3.58 to 1.

On the platform front, Open Road's Spotlight was off to a nice start with an estimated $302,276 from 5 locations in New York, Los Angeles and Boston. That gave the awards season hopeful starring Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton a promising per-location average of $60,455 this weekend. In comparison, last year's Birdman had a platform launch of $424,397 from 4 locations (for a per-location average of $106,099). Spotlight will receive a major expansion this coming Friday and is scheduled to go into moderate release on November 20th.

Elsewhere in platform release, fellow awards season hopeful Brooklyn took in an estimated $181,000 from 5 locations in New York and Los Angeles. That gave the critically acclaimed film starring Saoirse Ronan and Domhnall Gleeson a per-location average of $36,200 for the frame. Since its debut on Wednesday, Brooklyn has grossed $237,389 in five days of release. Brooklyn will expand into more locations this coming Friday and will continue to expand into additional locations throughout November.

Saturday Update: Following a record-breaking overseas launch last week, Sony/Columbia and MGM report this morning that Spectre bowed to a strong $28 million on Friday, including Thursday night's $5.25 million early launch. That falls about 8 percent shy of Skyfall's $30.5 million opening Friday three years ago, although that excludes $2.2 million in Thursday night IMAX screenings at a time when those weren't regularly rolled into the Friday gross as they are with most films today. Spectre's first day did come in slightly ahead of Quantum of Solace's $27 million opening day, marking the second best in franchise history for the latest film. Compared to Skyfall, reviews have been mixed (particularly from American critics) for Daniel Craig's fourth outing as 007 with a 62 percent Rotten Tomatoes score as of Saturday morning. Unfortunately, word of mouth is also significantly more modest with a 72 percent Flixster score thus far; however, the studio reports a solid "A-" CinemaScore. The general consensus among casual audiences remains to be seen, but for now BoxOffice is projecting a $72.5 million opening weekend.

Also posting a great debut showing on Friday was Fox and Blue Sky's The Peanuts Movie. The long-awaited big screen adaptation of the hugely popular and influential series took in an estimated $12.1 million on opening day. That's close to the $12.3 million Happy Feet opened to in 2006 when it also shared opening day with a James Bond film (Casino Royale). Peanuts' first day was also just 10 percent behind Wreck-It Ralph's $13.5 million opening day three years ago, another nostalgia-driven animated pic. Very positive reviews (87 percent) and word of mouth (86 percent) indicate the film is poised for a great $43 million debut weekend and a very fruitful run ahead as it has the entire holiday season to continue playing with multiple generations' of fans.

Moving down to third place, The Martian eased 25.5 percent from last Friday to $2.59 million yesterday. With $190.35 million in the domestic bank, it has now passed the final lifetime total of Interstellar ($188 million). BoxOffice projects a $9.2 million weekend, marking another impressive hold considering the new competition in the marketplace.

Bridge of Spies claimed fourth place yesterday with $1.76 million, off just 29 percent from last Friday. The Spielberg-Hanks Cold War drama has capitalized on great word of mouth to now amass $50.65 million domestically since opening. Look for a weekend around $6 million.

In fifth place, Goosebumps was down 55 percent from last week to $1.675 million on Friday. That gives the adaptation $61.1 million in total so far. BoxOffice projects a $6.2 million weekend.

Among notable platform releases this weekend, Open Road and Participant Media's Spotlight bowed to a strong $90,000 from 5 locations on Friday -- giving it an $18,000 per-theater average for opening day alone. Lauded to be a major awards contender, the film could take in around $280,000 this weekend as it hopes to build momentum in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, Brookyln posted $51,560 from 5 locations on opening day Friday. That represents a healthy $10,312 per-theater average. Look for a weekend around $150,000.

Opening day figures for Trumbo were not yet reported at the time of publishing. It also bowed in 5 locations this weekend.

Follow BoxOffice on Sunday for updated weekend estimates from the studios.

Friday Update #1: Sources report that Spectre pulled an estimated $5.25 million from Thursday night's first showings beginning at 7pm in 3,221 locations. That's a very strong start for Daniel Craig's fourth outing as 007, and the franchise's 24th overall. By comparison, Skyfall posted $2.2 million from 8pm IMAX shows and $2.4 million from midnight screenings three years ago, for a total of $5.25 million. Spectre's even earlier debut and in a climate where Thursday shows are increasingly more popular translates to an equally impressive opening. The question now becomes whether or not American audiences drive the film to a record debut like those in the United Kingdom and other countries did last week.

The film would need to top $88.4 million through Sunday for that to officially happen (although Skyfall's $2.2 million Thursday night IMAX shows weren't counted as part of the weekend at the time, which is now the industry norm).

Meanwhile, The Peanuts Movie did not screen last night but is expected to make a dent in the box office all its own this weekend.

More updates as they come.

Tags: The Peanuts Movie, Spectre, north-america

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