NORTH AMERICA: Weekend Estimates: 'Deadpool' Easily Remains #1 with $31.5M; 'Gods of Egypt' #2 with a Soft $14.0M Debut; 'Eddie the Eagle' ($6.3M) & 'Triple 9' ($6.1M) Start Out Even Slower

on February 28, 2016

feb022416predictions.jpg

Sunday Update: Fox's Deadpool continued to lead the box office with ease this weekend with an estimated third weekend take of $31.5 million. The Ryan Reynolds led blockbuster antihero film stabilized nicely this weekend, as the film was down a very respectable 44 percent. Deadpool is approaching the $300 million domestic mark with a massive 17-day start of $285.64 million. That places the film an extremely impressive 51 percent ahead of the $189.56 million 17-day take of 2014's X-Men: Days of Future Past (which fell 53 percent in its third weekend to gross $15.15 million). With the release of Disney's highly anticipated Zootopia on Friday, this will obviously be the last weekend in first place for Deadpool.

In other Marvel related news from Fox, on Saturday evening Fox announced that Gambit no longer has a currently scheduled release date. And while Fox didn't officially announce a release date for a Deadpool sequel yesterday, the studio did schedule untitled Marvel films for release on October 6, 2017 and on January 12, 2018.

Lionsgate's Gods of Egypt debuted in second place with an estimated $14.0 million. While the expensive action fantasy film featuring Gerard Butler and Nikolaj Coster-Waldau opened towards the higher end of its relatively modest expectations, the film still performed very poorly with both its high price tag and the action fantasy genre in mind. Months of largely negative pre-release buzz was simply too much for Gods of Egypt to overcome this weekend and poor critical reviews and the continued strength of Deadpool didn't help matters either. Gods of Egypt opened 56.5 percent below the $32.21 million start of 2011's Immortals.

Gods of Egypt started out with $4.76 million on Friday (which included an estimated $800,000 from Thursday night shows), increased 17 percent on Saturday to take in $5.58 million and is estimated to decline 34 percent on Sunday to gross $3.66 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.94 to 1. Gods of Egypt received a modest B- rating on CinemaScore and currently has a Flixster audience score of just 48 percent. Gerard Butler will hope to see much stronger results next weekend with the release of Focus' London Has Fallen.

Kung Fu Panda 3 claimed third place this weekend with an estimated $9.00 million. The 3D computer animated sequel from Fox and DreamWorks Animation was down a very healthy 28 percent from last weekend, as the film appears to have received a boost this weekend from family audiences who wanted to catch it before Zootopia arrives in the marketplace next weekend. The 31-day total for Kung Fu Panda 3 stands at $128.46 million, which places the film 13 percent behind the $148.18 million 31-day take of last year's Hotel Transylvania 2.

Risen followed in fourth place with an estimated $7.00 million. The faith-based film from Sony's AFFIRM Films label starring Joseph Fiennes was down a solid 41 percent from last weekend's debut. Risen has grossed $22.70 million in ten days, which is towards the higher end of expectations. That places the film a strong 36 percent ahead of the $16.68 million ten-day take of 2014's When the Game Stands Tall (which fell 28 percent in its second weekend to gross $6.01 million). Risen will hope to hold up well between now and Easter, though before much longer the film will be facing new direct competition from fellow faith-based films The Young Messiah and Miracles from Heaven.

Fox's Eddie the Eagle rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated $6.30 million. The sports comedy starring Taron Egerton and Hugh Jackman opened just below its already modest pre-release expectations. Despite aid from a Super Bowl ad and the strongest critical reviews of the weekend's three new wide releases, moviegoers simply weren't very interested in Eddie the Eagle out of the gate.  The film opened with $1.94 million on Friday, increased a strong 43 percent on Saturday to take in $2.77 million and is estimated to decrease 43 percent on Sunday to gross $1.59 million. That gives Eddie the Eagle an estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio of 3.25 to 1, which is a promising early sign. Furthermore, Eddie the Eagle received a strong A rating on CinemaScore and currently boasts a healthy 87 percent audience score on Flixster, so it is possible that the film could hold up well going forward thanks to healthy word of mouth.

Triple 9 debuted in sixth place with a very lackluster $6.10 million. The ensemble crime drama opened below expectations and failed to live up to the relatively high online activity levels the film had generated in the weeks leading up to its release. Triple 9 represents another disappointing performance for Open Road, with other recent misfires for the distributor including last year's Rock the Kasbah and last month's Fifty Shades of Black. Triple 9 opened 54 percent below the $13.15 million start of 2012's End of Watch (which was also an Open Road release). Triple 9 took in $2.14 million on Friday, was up 12 percent on Saturday to gross $2.40 million and is estimated to fall 35 percent on Sunday to claim $1.56 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.85 to 1. Triple 9 received a soft C+ rating on CinemaScore and currently has a Flixster audience score of 51 percent; neither of which is a good sign for the film going forward.

---

Saturday Update: Fox's Deadpool reigned against on Friday with an estimated $8.95 million, off about 45 percent from the same day last week. That brings its domestic total up to an excellent $263.1 million through 15 days of release, 29 percent ahead of where Guardians of the Galaxy stood at the same point. We're projecting another easy first place crown for the Merc with a Mouth as the film heads toward a $31 million third frame.

Liongsate's Gods of Egypt debuted in second with $4.76 million yesterday. While slightly higher, that's generally in line with the studio's past winter misfires I, Frankenstein ($2.87 million opening day) and The Legend of Hercules ($3.16 million). Unfortunately, the film marks the first big-budget misfire of 2016 due to its rumored $140 million production budget. Word of mouth and reviews are sour early on with a 48 percent score from Flixster audiences and disastrous 11 percent from Rotten Tomatoes critics. BoxOffice projects an opening weekend of $13.4 million.

Open Road launched Triple 9 to an estimated $2.14 million in third place on Friday. Unfortunately, that falls a bit shy of pre-release expectations as the film had been aiming for an opening closer to the studio's Nightcrawler ($3.2 million opening day). Mixed reviews (55 percent) and audience reception (53 percent) are surely holding it back at this point. Look for a weekend tally around $6.0 million.

Kung Fu Panda 3 claimed fourth place with $1.955 million yesterday, off just 32 percent from last week. Its domestic haul is now $121.4 million. Look for a very healthy $9.2 million weekend.

The last of three wide openers this weekend continued the group trend as Eddie the Eagle opened to a disappointing $1.935 million in fifth place on Friday. The family-friendly, feel-good sports drama had been hoping to capitalize on mostly positive reviews (72 percent from critics, 84 percent from audiences) and pre-release screening buzz, but momentum never caught fire as social media activity limped into release. The good news is that staying power could be in the film's advantage, but for now it falls short of last year's McFarland, USA which itself was a modest opener ($3.63 million opening day). BoxOffice projects a $5.8 million weekend.

Risen was down 52 percent from opening day last week to $1.94 million yesterday. Its total stands at $17.6 million through eight days of play. Positive word of mouth among the target audience should continue to drive it in the weeks ahead. Its sophomore frame should land around $7.3 million this weekend (Sony itself is projecting $7.0 million).

Last but not least, The Revenant increased 0.6 percent from last Friday to $971,000 yesterday. The 12-time Oscar-nominated epic's domestic total is now $167.7 million and looks for a $3.5 million weekend. Meanwhile, Star Wars: The Force Awakens added $677,000 yesterday, bringing its all-time record domestic haul up to $923.7 million. It should bring in around $2.7 million this weekend.

Check back on Sunday for official weekend estimates from the studios.

---

Friday Report: Sources are reporting this morning that Gods of Egypt led the charge among newcomers on Thursday night with an estimated $800,000. That's a stronger haul than expected going into the weekend, although not necessarily indicative of a breakout yet. By comparison, Wrath of the Titans earned $1.0 million in its late Thursday night start four years ago on its way to a $33.5 million opening weekend. Contrasting that, however, is last year's Jupiter Ascending -- it bowed to $1.0 million from early Thursday evening shows as part of an $18.4 million opening. Projections for Egypt are still scattered at this point, although it could feasibly land anywhere between $14-20 million for the weekend. Poor reviews and word of mouth will likely send it to the lower end of that range.

Meanwhile, Triple 9 scored $335,000 last night. Considering a limited marketing campaign, that's a fair start for the crime thriller. By comparison, Run All Night pulled $460,000 last year and Open Road's own Nightcrawler debuted to $520,000 in October 2014. A weekend in the upper-single-digit millions looks attainable for Triple 9.

Lastly, Eddie the Eagle took in $175,000 last night -- a modest start compared to last year's McFarland, USA ($260,000). Positive reviews and family-friendliness could go a long way for Eddie, which will certainly find most of its audience showing up during weekend matinees.

Ultimately, Deadpool will easily top the box office again for its third straight weekend.

We'll have initial weekend estimates on Saturday morning once the studios report official Friday estimates. Stay tuned.

 

 

Tags: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Kung Fu Panda 3, The Revenant, Risen, Eddie the Eagle, Triple 9, Gods of Egypt, Deadpool, north-america

Comments
What do you think?
read all News »