NORTH AMERICA: Weekend Estimates: 'Zootopia' Easily Remains #1 with $50.0M; '10 Cloverfield Lane' #2 with a Healthy $25.2M; 'The Perfect Match' ($4.15M) Outpaces 'The Young Messiah' ($3.40M) & 'The Brothers Grimsby' ($3.15M)

on March 13, 2016

mar11.png

Sunday Update: Disney's Zootopia continued to lead the box office with ease this weekend with an estimated second weekend take of $50.0 million. The critically acclaimed 3D computer animated film from Walt Disney Animation Studios was down just 33 percent from last weekend's debut; a sure sign of just how strong word of mouth is for the film. Zootopia registered the sixth largest second weekend performance ever for an animated film (behind only 2004's Shrek 2, 2010's Toy Story 3, 2007's Shrek the Third, last year's Inside Out and 2004's The Incredibles). The film has grossed a very impressive $142.62 million through ten days of release. That places the film 29 percent ahead of the $110.31 million ten-day start of 2014's Big Hero 6 (which fell 38 percent in its second weekend to gross $34.66 million). Given its strong word of mouth, the approaching Easter holiday and the relative lack of competition for family audiences it will face throughout the rest of March and early April, Zootopia should continue to hold up very well going forward.

Paramount's 10 Cloverfield Lane opened in second place with an estimated $25.2 million. The J.J. Abrams produced thriller starring Mary Elizabeth Winstead and John Goodman opened in line with its wide ranging expectations and performed well with its modest price tag in mind. 10 Cloverfield Lane, which has been referred to as a relative to 2008's Cloverfield, opened 37 percent below the $40.06 million three-day start of Cloverfield, but wasn't expected to deliver that type of debut this weekend. 10 Cloverfield Lane performed more similar to last year's The Visit, which opened with $25.43 million.

10 Cloverfield Lane opened with $9.00 million on Friday (which included a sizable $1.8 million from Thursday evening shows), increased 8 percent on Saturday to gross $9.70 million and is estimated to decline 33 percent on Sunday to take in $6.50 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.80 to 1. The audience breakdown for 10 Cloverfield Lane skewed towards male moviegoers (60 percent) and heavily towards moviegoers over the age of 25 (68 percent). 10 Cloverfield Lane has received strong critical reviews and currently boasts an encouraging 86 percent audience score on Flixster. The film didn't go over as strongly on CinemaScore, where it received a B- rating.

Deadpool claimed third place with an estimated $10.80 million. The Ryan Reynolds led blockbuster antihero film from Fox stabilized nicely this weekend, as it was down 35 percent. Deadpool continues to pad its total as the highest grossing release of 2016 thus far with a massive 31-day gross of $328.08 million. The film is running an exceptional 51 percent ahead of the $216.74 million 31-day take of 2014's X-Men: Days of Future Past. Deadpool is likely to hold up well again next weekend, before Warner's Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice enters the marketplace the following week on March 25.

London Has Fallen followed closely behind in fourth place with an estimated $10.67 million. The action thriller sequel from Focus and Gramercy was down a sizable, but understandable 51 percent from last weekend's debut. In comparison, 2013's Olympus Has Fallen fell 53 percent in its second weekend to gross $14.15 million. London Has Fallen has grossed $38.85 million in ten days. That is in line with expectations but is 29 percent softer than the $54.89 million ten-day take of Olympus Has Fallen.

Paramount's Whiskey Tango Foxtrot rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated $4.60 million. The R-rated comedy starring Tina Fey held up nicely this weekend, as it was down 38 percent from last weekend. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot has grossed $14.57 million in ten days. The film is still performing below expectations and is running 35 percent behind the $22.44 million ten-day take of 2014's This is Where I Leave You (which fell 40 percent in its second weekend to gross $6.89 million).

The Perfect Match debuted in sixth place with an estimated $4.15 million. That gave the romantic comedy from Lionsgate and Codeblack Films a very solid per-location average of $4,486 from a relatively modest 925 locations. The Perfect Match started out with $1.56 million on Friday, increased 11 percent on Saturday to gross $1.73 million and is estimated to fall 50 percent on Sunday to gross $0.86 million. That gives the film an estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio of 2.66 to 1. The Perfect Match currently has a 62 percent audience score on Flixster.

Meanwhile, Focus' The Young Messiah and Sony's The Brothers Grimsby were both off to very poor starts this weekend. The Young Messiah opened in seventh place with an estimated $3.40 million, while the Sacha Baron Cohen led The Brothers Grimsby followed in eighth place with an even softer estimated start of $3.15 million. Both films opened below their already modest respective expectations. The Young Messiah appears to be going over better with moviegoers, as the film received an A- rating on CinemaScore and has a current Flixster audience score of 71 percent, whereas The Brothers Grimsby received a B- rating on CinemaScore and has a current Flixster audience score of just 55 percent.

---

Saturday Update: Paramount reports this morning that 10 Cloverfield Lane made a strong debut in second place with $9.0 million on Friday, including Thursday night's $1.8 million haul. That's generally in line with The Visit's $9.2 million opening day last fall and marks a strong start for the Bad Robot release from first-time director Dan Trachtenberg and producer J.J. Abrams thanks to strong early word of mouth. The "spiritual sequel" currently boasts an 87 percent Flixster score on top of its 91 percent Rotten Tomatoes mark, leaving the "B-" CinemaScore as the only indicator of any mixed word of mouth. Based on a mid-teen millions production budget, the film is already a success and will hope to enjoy healthy legs for its genre. BoxOffice projects an opening weekend around $23.3 million.

Meanwhile, Disney's Zootopia held onto first place yesterday with $12.023 million -- impressively off just 38 percent from opening day last week. That gives the animated smash hit an eight-day tall of $104.6 million as it paces 25 percent ahead of Big Hero 6 (which eased 49.5 percent from its first-to-second Friday). Look for a huge sophomore frame of $52 million this weekend, easily landing in first place again.

London Has Fallen slipped 60 percent from opening Friday last week to $3.023 million yesterday, giving it $31.2 million in the domestic bank so far as it heads toward a likely $10.4 million second frame. Deadpool was just behind it with $3.0 million on Friday, sending it to $320.3 million domestically as it aims for $10.7 million this weekend.

The Perfect Match exceeded two other new releases this weekend by debuting fifth place yesterday with $1.56 million -- doing so with just 925 theaters. Its opening weekend should net around $4.0 million.

The Young Messiah proved to be front-loaded to Thursday night showings where it earned a strong $475,000, but tallied $1.38 million in all once counting Friday's numbers. It is likely that church-related group sales skewed the abnormally high Thursday night figure. By comparison, Risen earned $4.02 million in its first day including a $430,000 Thursday night showing. Young Messiah should score around $3.3 million this weekend.

Lastly, The Brothers Grimsby is living down to expectations with just a $1.2 million opening day on Friday. That falls below the $1.8 million first day of last year's Unfinished Business despite posting a near-identical Thursday night debut of $240,000 (versus Business' $250,000). Opening weekend looks to be around $3.0 million.

---

Friday Update: Sources report that 10 Cloverfield Lane grabbed a strong $1.8 million from opening night Thursday at over 2,500 locations. By comparison, last fall's The Visit took in $1.02 million on its way to a $25.4 million opening weekend. However, there's clearly a lot of excitement from fans of the original Cloverfield and producer J.J. Abrams for this spiritual sequel, while it remains to be seen whether or not casual audiences are still intrigued by the mysterious premise after an eight-year gap between chapters. Further complicating matters is the fact that reviews are outstanding so far, ultimately leaving most comparison points null and void. For now, the potential weekend debut could land anywhere between $24-35 million, likely somewhere in the center of that range.

Meanwhile, The Young Messiah also got off to an excellent relative start last night with $475,000 -- besting Risen's $430,000 Thursday night just last month. Strong reviews and a late marketing campaign surge are bringing out faith-based crowds for the second of four major Christian films opening this winter/spring. A weekend over $10 million now looks possible, if not higher than Risen's $11.8 million opening frame.

Lastly, The Brothers Grimsby earned a grim $235,000 last night. That's under the $250,000 haul of last year's Unfinished Business, which debuted to just $4.8 million over its three-day weekend.

The Perfect Match is also set to open this weekend, although no opening night numbers were reported at the time of publishing. Disney's Zootopia is expected to easily repeat in first place this weekend ahead of what looks to be a strong second place opening for 10 Cloverfield Lane.

Follow BoxOffice on Saturday morning for more concrete weekend estimates based on official Friday estimates from the studios.

Tags: The Perfect Match, The Brothers Grimsby, The Young Messiah, 10 Cloverfield Lane, Zootopia, north-america

Comments
What do you think?
read all News »