Long Range Forecast: 'The Heat' & 'White House Down'

Featured Stories - on May 04, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

jun28.pngAs the closing films for June before Fourth of July weekend, The Heat and White House Down have been added to our Long Range Forecast this week.

The Heat

PROS:

- Melissa McCarthy is at the top of her game right now after breaking out in 2011's Bridesmaids while also helping to lead this year's Identity Thief to great box office success.
- Sandra Bullock similarly has a great track record in recent years with The Proposal and The Blind Side (for which she won an Oscar).
- Women are a demographic largely ignored at the box office, and this will be the first time a movie caters to them this summer.
- The hard-R comedic nature of the film should prove to draw male audiences as well. 
- Buzz out of CinemaCon was very healthy. 

CONS:

- This will be the fourth of six major comedies to open in summer (after The Hangover Part III, The Internship, and This is the End).
- Opening against a Channing Tatum movie could limit the opening weekend demand among women. 

White House Down

PROS:

- Channing Tatum has proven himself to be a draw with last year's The Vow, 21 Jump Street, and Magic Mike.
- Jamie Foxx is fresh off the big success of Django Unchained.
- Director Roland Emmerich has had success with past summer releases like Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow. 

CONS:

- Competition for action movies will be heavy in late June after Man of Steel and World War Z have opened, and before The Lone Ranger.
- Opening against a female-centric comedy could limit the opening weekend potential the film gains through women with Tatum.
- Emmerich's last film, 2012, opened well but was poorly received by audiences. Will they remember and/or care?
- Did this year's Olympus Has Fallen steal too much of its buzz with a similar plot? 

Notable changes on our forecast this week include The Great Gatsby, Peeples, Star Trek Into Darkness, Fast & Furious 6, and The Hangover Part III.

Please note that our Star Trek Into Darkness figures below account for a supposed wide release on Thursday, May 16. We are waiting for confirmation from Paramount regarding that date (as opposed to the original Friday, May 17 release). 

Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distribuitor Opening Weekend Cumulative
White House Down Jun 28, 2013 Sony / Columbia
 $36,000,000 $112,000,000
The Heat Jun 28, 2013 Fox
 $37,000,000 $152,000,000
Monsters University Jun 21, 2013 Disney
 $75,000,000 $260,000,000
World War Z Jun 21, 2013 Paramount
 $40,000,000 $105,000,000
Man of Steel Jun 14, 2013 Warner Bros.
 $108,000,000 $325,000,000
This Is The End Jun 12, 2013 Sony / Columbia
 $28,000,000** $97,000,000
The Purge Jun 7, 2013 Universal
 $14,000,000 $35,000,000
The Internship Jun 7, 2013 Fox
 $15,000,000 $42,000,000
After Earth May 31, 2013 Sony / Columbia
 $37,000,000 $105,000,000
Now You See Me May 31, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
 $16,000,000 $50,000,000
Fast & Furious 6 May 24, 2013 Universal
 $108,000,000* $225,000,000
The Hangover Part III May 24, 2013 Warner Bros.
 $85,000,000* $195,000,000
Epic May 24, 2013 Fox
 $33,000,000* $95,000,000
Star Trek Into Darkness May 16, 2013 Paramount
 $93,000,000 $300,000,000
Tyler Perry Presents Peeples May 10, 2013 Lionsgate
 $13,000,000 $30,000,000
The Great Gatsby (2013) May 10, 2013 Warner Bros.
 $37,000,000 $106,000,000

* = 4-day weekend (Fri-Mon)
** = 3-day weekend 

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: White House Down, The Heat

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